Friday, 20 April 2007

Today's COTs Report: No New Signals

New Signals
None

Renewed Signals*
BUY

-NASDAQ
-Nikkei

SELL
-Crude Oil, Light Sweet**
-S&P/TSE Canadian Energy iUnits ETF, symbol: XEG.TO
-Soybean Oil (sell)

Existing signals (date of original signal in parentheses)***
BUY
-10-Year Treasury Yield (23-Mar-07)
-S&P 500 (1-Sep-06)
-NASDAQ (30-Mar-07)
-Semiconductor Index, symbol: SOX (30-Mar-07)
-Dow Jones Industrial Average (23-Dec-05)
-Russell 2000 (4-Aug-06)
-Nikkei (6-Feb-04)

SELL
-Crude Oil, Light Sweet (6-Apr-07)**
-S&P/TSE Canadian Energy iUnits ETF, symbol: XEG.TO (6-Apr-07)
-Oil Service Holders ETF, symbol: OIH (21-Apr-06)
-S&P 400 Midcap (8-Jan-07)
-Soybean Oil (5-May-06)
-US Global Investors Funds US Gold Fund, USERX (2-Feb-07)
-S&P/TSE Canadian Gold iUnits ETF, symbol: XGD.TO (2-Feb-07)
-Gold Bugs Index, HUI (16-Feb-07)

Notes
* A “renewed” signal is when a market is already on a buy or sell signal, and traders again register an extreme net trading position in the same direction. See “Glossary” in right-hand column for more details.

** See footnote for Crude Oil on “Profit/Loss Results” page in right-hand column.

*** The date in parentheses refers to the day on which the COTs Report was released that gave this signal. For details on how these trades work, including trade delays and portfolio allocation, click on “Profit/Loss Results” in right-hand column.

Please note that my system gave these existing signals months ago in many cases. My profit/loss calculations were based solely on taking trades shortly after the signals were given as indicated in the “Trade delay” column on the “Profit/Loss Results” page—NOT at random moments long after the signals were given. Even small delays in trade execution have resulted in major reductions in past gains. In other words, this list of current signals is only a reference, not a list of trades I would execute right now.

4 comments:

Normand said...

Hi Alex,

Great work.

Just wondering if you tried to apply your system to Natural Gas. It seems that right now Commercials are very short Crude Oil but quite long Natural Gas.

Also how would that affect OIH since drillers are more dependant on Natural Gas companies exploration budgets than Oil companies exploration budgets.

By the same token, how would that affect XEG since some of the companies in this ETF are more Natural Gas producers than Oil producers.

Thanks.

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Normand,

Thanks very much for your comment and kind words. I plan to study natural gas very soon. I'll include the results in my weekly updates as well as on the "Profit/Loss Results" page in the right-hand column - unless I don't find anything tradeable.

I'll also see if I can find some good setups correlating Natural Gas with OIH and XEG. Thanks for your suggestions.

Best regards,
Alex

Brian said...

Alex,
Just read your article in Stocks and Commodities magazine. On the table on this blog,System Beat NASDAQ by 848% With One Trade Per Year, have a question as to what investment (reverse Nasdaq?) you are in when a sell signal is generated. I assume you are in some investment,since the COTS profits increase,even during the period 11/15/2005(Sell) - 7/11/2006(Buy), for example.

Appreciate your time; I am just getting familiar with your system.

Thanks
Brian

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Brian,

Thanks for your interest. All the calculations on the "Profit/Results" page are based on the purely theoretical buying or selling of the underlying cash market itself - in the case of your question, the NASDAQ.

The results do not include commissions, slippage or other fees.

In my own trading, however, I shorted the NASDAQ with the ProShares double inverse ETF (symbol: QID). Note that this meant I halved my portfolio allocation so as to keep to my risk threshold for this trade.

I intend to add a page to the blog soon that explains in a few basic steps how I use the system.

Best regards,
Alex