Friday, 11 May 2007

Signals Bullish for Equities

Although the Commitments of Traders report gave no new signals again this week, the data remains overall bullish for equities. The Canadian dollar this week broke its recent uptrend, as predicted by the commitments data. Nonetheless, the data is again flashing a renewed buy signal for the energy-heavy TSX, based on a setup correlated with the S&P 500 COTs data.

New Signals*
BUY
None

SELL
None

Renewed Signals**
BUY
-TSX
-Nikkei

SELL
-Natural Gas***
-Soybean Oil
-Canadian Dollar

Existing signals (date of original signal in parentheses)****
BUY
-10-Year Treasury Yield (23-Mar-07)
-S&P 500 (1-Sep-06)
-NASDAQ (30-Mar-07)
-Semiconductor Index, symbol: SOX (30-Mar-07)
-Dow Jones Industrial Average (23-Dec-05)
-Russell 2000 (4-Aug-06)
-Nikkei (6-Feb-04)
-TSX (23-Mar-07)

SELL
-S&P/TSE Canadian Energy iUnits ETF, symbol: XEG.TO (6-Apr-07)
-Oil Service Holders ETF, symbol: OIH (21-Apr-06)
-S&P 400 Midcap (8-Jan-07)
-Soybean Oil (5-May-06)
-US Global Investors Funds US Gold Fund, USERX (2-Feb-07)
-S&P/TSE Canadian Gold iUnits ETF, symbol: XGD.TO (2-Feb-07)
-Gold Bugs Index, HUI (16-Feb-07)
-Canadian Dollar (13-Apr-07)
-U.S. Dollar Index (6-Oct-06)

NEUTRAL
-Crude Oil, Light Sweet (6-Apr-07)***
-Natural Gas (30-Mar-07)***

Notes
* For an explanation of what I do after a new signal, click “How It Works” on the right.

** A “renewed” signal is when a market is already on a buy or sell signal, and traders again register an extreme net trading position in the same direction. Click “Glossary” in right-hand column for more details.

*** See my special caveats for Crude Oil and Natural Gas (click “Profit/Loss Results” in the right-hand column and check the footnotes).

**** The date in parentheses refers to the day on which the COTs Report was released that gave this signal. For details on how these trades work, including trade delays and portfolio allocation, click on “Profit/Loss Results” in right-hand column. Please note that my system gave these existing signals months ago in many cases. My profit/loss calculations were based solely on taking trades shortly after the signals were given as indicated in the “Trade delay” column on the “Profit/Loss Results” page—NOT at random moments long after the signals were given. Even small delays in trade execution have resulted in major reductions in past gains. In other words, this list of current signals is only a reference, not a list of trades I would execute right now.

1 comment:

NonyMous said...

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