Monday, 1 October 2007

Blog Update: My Portfolio Page

Just updated my portfolio page to reflect trades this morning based on Friday's bullish signal for the S&P 500. Note that I haven't dumped my XGD Canadian Gold iUnits or SLV iShares Silver Trust positions, despite the new bearish signals for gold and gold stocks.

Those bearish signals were based on the extreme bearishness among commercial traders in gold futures and options. My setups for XGD and silver, on the other hand, are based on fading the small traders in gold and silver. The gold small traders are at a neutral level, while silver small traders are actually quite bearish. So my existing signals in those two setups still hold. Best of luck today.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Alex,

Just discovered your site and have been reviewing it. Very impressive and certainly nice of you to share it.

Thx,
Chris

Anonymous said...

That was a heck of a call to Sell Gold....

Anonymous said...

"That was a heck of a call to Sell Gold...."

WAS is the operative word here. While I may be jumping the gun, it looks like the COTs system may be better suited to more conventional assets. It is most likely that the recent (and shortlived) dip in gold was due as much to the reporting of such projected corrections as opposed to any COTs position information.

About Alex Roslin said...

Hi,

Thanks for your comment. I don't believe the system's record is superior for non-precious metals assets. Check the columns on my "Latest Signals" page for the confidence intervals for the various setups, and you'll see that the gold and silver setups are among the most robust.

As for your other observations, I wouldn't agree that the dip in gold had to do with reporting on a projected correction. Some analysts out there were growing bearish, others no. Besides, the move happened across the currencies too.

Finally, you should note that I'm still holding my silver and Canadian Gold iUnits, which are based on differing setups.

Regards,
Alex

Anonymous said...

Noted. Any possibility that gold, and gold alone, is non-correlated due to the fact that it is a multi-functional asset?

About Alex Roslin said...

I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Please explain.

Regards,
Alex