Friday, 26 October 2007

It's Quiet - Too Quiet

Few renewed signals out of today's Commitments of Traders report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and no new signals. My existing (mostly) bullish equities signals all still hold, but my COTs U.S. Equities Composite Index has taken another dive. It's fallen to 0.20 from last week's 0.46, the fourth straight drop. It's now well below where it stood during last summer's meltdown, when it bottomed at 0.40. On the other hand, it's still got a bullish tilt (since it's above 0), and most importantly, it remains solidly on its bullish signal. (A -0.8 reading is needed to flip it to bearish.) So the index might just be signaling that the market indigestion we're seeing isn't quite over yet.

Also interesting: my new COTs Agriculture Composite Index, based on my setups for wheat, sugar, corn and soybeans, has risen to a fairly bullish 0.62 from last week's 0.36. (Like with my equities composite index, a "1" here means all four setups just gave a bullish signal for execution on next week's open.) As well, my setup for the 30-year Treasury has given a renewed bullish signal, as has the setup for the 13-week T-Bill, hinting at lower interest rates to come. Listen up, Helicopter Ben. I'm busy working on my Hallowe'en costume during your meeting next week so I'm not available to brief you guys, but you're welcome to visit my "Latest Signals" page for the full details and to check in early next week with more thoughts on Friday's COTs data.

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