Friday, 2 November 2007

COTs Their Usual Sanguine Selves, But Equity Woes May Linger

Another week, another piece of toilet paper, er, I mean dollar. I mean dollar lost. So much craziness. Where do we start? Ah yes, this is where the Commitments of Traders reports come in. Such wise little numbers. I love them so. I've just posted the take from my setups based on this free government data at the main table on the "Latest Signals" page (see Navigation bar).

Looks like another super-quiet week. The COTs are their usual sanguine selves, sticking with all existing signals. My COTs U.S. Composite Equity Index has declined a smidgen to 0.17 from last week's 0.20. Not too good. But not too bad either, though. It's still above zero, which I'd describe as a bullish tilt, and most importantly, it's still on a bullish signal. Might mean the market's still not quite out of the haunted woods yet. As for my COTs Composite Agriculture Index, it's also declined a wee bit to 0.56 from last week's 0.62. But still on a bullish signal, too. For other deep thoughts about today's COTs report, check in back here early next week as per usual. Hope you had a good week and have a happy weekend.

2 comments:

Kyle said...

I was just wondering how you come up with the number of standard deviations to trigger a signal? After looking at the Russell spreadsheet you use 2 but your s&p uses 1.25. Thanks

About Alex Roslin said...

Hi Kyle,

That comes from testing various combinations of standard deviations and moving averages. Read the "How I Discovered It" page to learn more.

Regards,
Alex