Monday, 3 March 2008

New Setups: Platinum Bullish as of March 10, Nikkei Called Bottom Feb. 11

Just updated my Latest Signals page with details from my new trading setups for Japan's Nikkei Stock Average and platinum. Like all my other setups, these two are based exclusively on the weekly data released free in the Commitments of Traders reports of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Unlike trading based on market prices or fundamentals, which often stop working after a while as traders arbitrage away their edge, the setups on this website are some of the few in existence based just on the COTs data.

The Nikkei setup went long with the Dec. 11 Commitments of Traders report, and the setup uses an eight-week trade delay, so that means execution was on the open of Monday, Feb. 11. My chart shows that's a day or two after EWJ Japan iShares put in what appears to be an interim bottom. Nice. My platinum setup went bullish with the Jan. 8 COTs report, which, with an eight-week trade delay, means execution for next Monday, March 10. Good luck this week!

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Alex,
What do you use to trade Platinum,
sorry it says anonymous, cannot figure the other bits out.

Alex Roslin said...

Thanks for your comment. I've still got to research that as there are no ETFs for this market. I'd be looking for a good pure platinum play, but I'm leery of single-company trades because of risks for individual companies I'd need to research.

Regards,
Alex

Anonymous said...

HI Alex,

Just want to express my appreciation for this wonderful contribution you are making. Your kindness in sharing, free of charge, the results of so much hard work says much about your character.

Best wishes!

Anonymous said...

Hi Alex -

I have been reading just for a little while, and find that many of he calls are very counter-intuitive. Maybe that is why they work...

Take this one in Platinum. After the big run-up*, it's hard to see Platinum going higher. But that's what the indicator says - for a short term trade, I'd be inclined to go with physical metal itself, through an active dealer. Careful that you take possession however! With the lead times on the set up, you would have plenty of time to ship the stuff back, when time comes to sell.

As a stock play, I'd pick Johnson Mathey on the London exchange, maybe Novalisk for the truly adventurous.


*Driven by the South African electricity shortage.

Anonymous said...

Alex, The problem I have with your system, is that it is using Historical Data, and a set up program, which takes out the intuitive factor when investing in PGMs.Sorry you had to endure all the angyst, and name calling(Anger) over your Sayonora Silver article. Putting aside if it was a good call or not, your article appears on Kitco, where many of us are in thePGM business,dealers, refiners, assayers etc. For them/us to even see bearish sentiment on this site is almost sacreligous. So that explains why the angry replys were posted, plus they and I feel that in the Long Long run, Silver is a Bull, and all the PGMs are. This site isnt really a speculators or traders site, in my humble opinion. Take Care,James

Alex Roslin said...

Hi James,

Thanks for your comment. I agree it seems commodities are in a long-term secular bull, but sitting through those massive downturns isn't for me, which is why I trade it up and down. I love the volatility, which makes for great trading opportunities. Of course that approach isn't for everyone. If you can stomach the drawdowns, by all means buy and hold.

As for whether Kitco is not for traders, I'd disagree. I get all kinds of feedback from traders who've read my Kitco stories. I myself was always a regular Kitco reader while I was doing discretionary trading with bullion. The site publishes other writers who trade it too and have interesting approaches.

I myself am super skeptical of any writer who is a perma-bull in any market. Seems kinda suspicious to me, and in fact is very unfair to a lot of less-informed readers.

Regards,
Alex

ic said...

I will never understand how anyone can criticize someone who made the right call and got out with a nice profit. Whether there was more paper gains to made is meaningless. The only thing that talks is the cash balance in the bank account.

Anonymous said...

Hi Alex! Whats oing on with the Platinum Market? Is it re stabilizing? Will it still go higher in the future?

Regards,
Johoel

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Johoel,

I can only tell you what my platinum setup suggests has a good chance of happening, and it just flipped to bullish for execution last Monday. It's all about probabilities; don't know what will really happen.

Take care,
Alex

Joel R. Murphy said...

Thanks Alex for the reply. I believe the long turn trend is up also.

Johoel

Joel R. Murphy said...

Thanks Alex for the reply. I believe the long turn trend is up also.

Johoel