Monday, 4 August 2008

NASDAQ 100, Silver Turn Bullish

Bullish signals for my trading setups for the NASDAQ 100 and silver markets from Friday's Commitments of Traders report. I've just updated my latest signals page table with the latest calls from all my setups. Sorry for this delayed update. I've just gotten back from vacation with family in New Brunswick, ending with a beautiful drive through stunning upper Maine and New Hampshire. I should note that I'll have to ignore this bullish call for silver because of my risk-control rule for highly correlated markets. That rule, explained in more detail here (scroll down to "risk-control rules"), states that I follow a signal only when the majority of setups in highly correlated markets are leaning in the same direction. In the case of silver, two other markets (gold and platinum) are currently bullish, while heating oil and copper are bearish and crude oil is in cash. So I will ignore the silver signal.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with more details from the latest COT report. Meanwhile, see the table linked above for more info from my setups based on this free weekly government data. Good luck this week!

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Alex,

I just got back from New Brunswick myself. My family lives in Fredericton, and we spent a week up in Shediac as well.

Daniel

Alex Roslin said...

Hey Daniel!

Good to hear from you. My wife is the Maritimer of the family. She grew up in Fredericton (Oromocto), where we attended her 20th high school reunion (don't tell me you did too). Her relations are scattered between Salisbury (outside Moncton), Beaver Harbour, Hampton and St. John.

It was a great time. Probably our greatest discovery on the way back was a little diner in Norridgewock, Maine, called Frederick's Dar-I Whip, where they make one of the best corn chowders ever made. Their pulled pork sandwiches is pretty damn awesome too.

Take care,
Alex

Alex

Guo Ying said...

Your way to handle Silver Bullish signal this week is excellent. Silver is in correction mood because the whole sector is in correction.

Ray said...

Alex:

I was hoping you could update your portfolio page soon?

Thanks,
Ray

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Ray,

Haven't had a chance to do so or to post my more detailed analysis of the latest data. Had to catch up from my vacation week. Sorry! I'll post a portfolio update next Monday. At this point, I'm holding my long bond position, a leveraged NDX position, my long leveraged financials position and my long leveraged gold bullion position.

Best regards,
Alex

Matthew Millar said...

Hi Alex,

I appreciate your work. I've been checking it out over the past few months and like what I see.

I had a comment about Natural Gas. I noticed that your system went to cash a couple of weeks ago.

I trade largely from a technical point of view, although I certainly do look at COT as part of my decision making process. Nothing as robust as what you've got going.

I've been speculating as to the reason for the NG plunge. This plunge in price was nearly unprecedented in scope, especially in the lack of any sort of buying/up days. I'm speculating that Chesapeake and others have been hedging the Haynesville Shale production that is set to come on stream in the next 6-18 months. Simultaneously, we had a couple of long commodity index funds tear up shop, and then finally a couple of hedge funds blow up in NG, and spread players (me included) have to reduce position sizes (I was hedged long NG/short CL.)

I find it hard to imagine that we will be able to buy NG at $8.5 after next week though. I've got buy signals coming out my ears, but the biggest one is for August 19th-21st.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1010&tstamp=200808
With SST's close to what they were in 2005 and with (count them) 2 Loop Current Eddies in the GOM, the hurricane season could prove to be a doozy. Combine that with a 2.33:1 discount to crude and a 2.53:1 discount to HO. Finally, in spite of all the super bearish weather and the Texans wetting their pants over the shale oil, we're down 330 BCF YOY in the Storage department, and have had a completely average fill season thus far this year.!

Add it all up and this market could get back to $12.5 in a flash!

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Matthew,

Thanks for your message and insights. Natural gas is, as I'm sure you know, insanely volatile, probably more so than almost any other commodity. My chart shows a few recent plunges of similar gravity, including that of late 2005 to mid-2006, which saw a drop from around $15 to below $6. That 2005 high was in fact not far off from the level we hit earlier this summer, so it could suggest a strong resistance area, which could have precipitated this selloff - combined with the fact that the price nearly tripled since mid-2005.

It might interest you to know that on Aug. 5, UNG (the natgas ETF) gave a TD Sequential Combo Buy signal, according to Stephen Vita's AlchemyOfTrading.com site - a very interesting measure of overbought and oversold conditions.

Regards,
Alex

Anonymous said...

Hello. What do you mean that Crude Oil is cash?

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Anonymous - it means that setup is in cash. It's neither long nor short crude.

Regards,
Alex