Tuesday, 6 January 2009

S&P 500, Gold in Cash

I updated my latest signals table this morning based on yesterday's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders data. Some highlights:

- My new S&P 500 setup is in cash this week for a single week. It then goes back to bearish for at least the next two weeks starting the open of trading Monday, Jan. 12. The downer signal is based on: (1) the commercial traders, who have sat at extremes of bearish net positioning since the end of November (they're highly dubious about the current rally, with their net position at 1.47 standard deviations below the moving average for this setup) and (2) a sudden drop in the small trader total open futures and options positioning in the past two weeks.

- My new gold trading setup is in cash for a second week. In this market, the large speculator total open interest has hit exuberant extremes for the past three weeks, suggesting the recent rally was a little overbought.

Disclaimer messages: Anyone who has taken a look at my new or past spreadsheets for my S&P 500 trading setup - as well as all other readers of this blog - should be sure to read the disclaimer messages I've posted more prominently on the page where the spreadsheet is posted and on every other webpage on this site. That disclaimer was already posted on every page, but I've now made it more prominent because I don't want any mistakes about the risks I'm taking when trading my signals and the fact that these aren't recommendations to readers to buy or sell anything. I'm not a certified financial advisor and created this blog as a way to track my own system development, share information about the COT data and learn from readers. The last part has actually been the best surprise from all this - meeting other people with similar interests and learning from them. Thanks to all and best wishes in 2009!

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

1 comment:

T said...

Alex,

Thanks for the updated figures. Hope you had a great Christmas!
Still working on the backtesting - pretty sure it will show that std dev will be useful on stop losses. Will keep you posted.

Tim