Saturday, 24 April 2010
Banks, Gold in Cash; S&P 500, Nikkei Bullish; Gas, Bonds Bearish
It's the bull that never dies! The Commitments of Traders data released Friday by the CFTC suggests the rally that started in March 2009 still has strong legs... for now. I've just updated my latest signals table with the details and several new signals. Some highlights:
- U.S. banks: My trading setup for the BKX Bank Index is in cash for the second straight week. It came very close to turning bullish again this week, as you can see from the data on my signals table - but not quite.
- S&P 500: My S&P 500 setup is bullish for the 10th consecutive week. The "smart money" commercial hedgers actually got more bullish compared to recent data, while the wrong-way small traders are more bearish.
- Gold: My gold setup goes to cash after five weeks being bullish.
- Natural gas: My gas setup goes bearish on Monday's open of trading and will remain so for two weeks.
- Nikkei: My Nikkei setup goes bullish on Monday's open.
- 30-year Treasury bond: My bond setup goes bearish on Monday's open.
Good luck this week, and please check in at my portfolio page for an update early this week. Sorry I couldn't get to the portfolio update last week.
TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil, Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing