Friday, 11 June 2010
Going Short U.S. Banks Next Week
Hope you did okay this week. The market found some legs and enjoyed a nice little bounce. But there's more bad news for next week from the Commitments of Traders data issued Friday by the CFTC. I've just updated my latest signals table based on the new COT report. Some highlights:
- U.S. banks: My trading setup for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index goes bearish on next week's open of trading.
- S&P 500: This setup goes to cash next week after being bullish since late February, then returns to bullish for a week.
- Crude oil: My setup for black gold goes to cash after a nice eight-week run in the bearish column.
- Gold: My setup for gold gold remains in cash. The COT data is mixed this week. Large speculator total open interest, which has a 77-percent correlation with bullion prices the following week, has rebounded in today's data after declining for the previous three weeks. That is mitigated somewhat, however, by a decline in the large spec net position as a percentage of the total open interest, which has a 62-percent correlation with the gold price.
- Natural gas: The data for gas has deteriorated somewhat and almost gave me a bearish signal, but not quite. The setup remains in cash.
Have a good weekend, and be sure to tune back in early next week for an update to my portfolio page.