Monday, 16 January 2012

SPX Small Traders Get Excessively Bullish

The wrong-way small traders have gotten excessively bullish in their positioning in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report. That's helped push my setup for the S&P 500 into the bearish column with a three-week trade delay, meaning the trade takes effect the open of the week of Feb. 5.

Meanwhile, my BKX Bank Index setup has gone to cash this week.

See the details for these and the other COT data I am following with my COTs Timer system on my newly updated latest signals table.

Sorry about the delayed post this week. I was on the road travelling to beautiful and sunny Costa Rica. What a gorgeous place! Good luck this week.


CalD said...

Interesting blog? Do you still maintain your S&P 500 DIY Spreadsheet? Or is that gone forever?

CalD said...

I have another dumb question. On your signals table, some positions seem to indicate in a couple that you you intend to fade or foll conflicting bearish/bullish signals from different trader groups on the same instrument.

For example on 30 year Tbonds: you say Small traders are bullish and Large Speculators are bearish, but your fade/follow column suggests that you intend to follow both. I noted the trade delay figure thought perhaps you were planning to follow one group in two weeks and the other in 4 in that case, but of course that still wouldn't explain how you could follow both commercial traders and small traders in different directions in 3 weeks on the S&P 500.


Alex Roslin said...

Hi CalD,

I took that down because I've updated my setup for SPX with a new temporary setup. But I'm still revising all my setups, including the one for SPX, to use shorter trade delays all around. When it's done, I'll probably post a new spreadsheet.

For your other question, I fade (not follow) the small traders and large specs in the 30-year Treasuries. The COT position this week isn't the one that is in effect this week. You have to take into account the trade delay. For SPX, I fade the small traders and follow the commercials. When both signals in a setup don't agree for a particular week, taking into account the trade delay, the setup is in cash.

Does that help?


CalD said...

OK, I see. My bad. Thanks!