Saturday, 2 March 2013

Huge Bullish Swing in S&P 500 Positioning; Silver Bullish Too

Big sudden shift this past week in the futures and options positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in the S&P 500.

These folks, highly bearish for the first part of this year, have just plowed a bunch of their money into much more bullish positioning, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

The shift is so extreme it has pushed my S&P 500 signal into the bullish column after two months of being short. The new signal takes effect with the two-week trade delay I use for this signal - i.e. the open of the week of March 18.

See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other markets I'm trading using the weekly COT data.

Two signals take effect this coming week: cash for my Nasdaq-100 signal and bullish for silver. (Gold had already been bullish since early January, but now silver joins the fun!)

Have a good rest of your weekend, and good luck next week.


Kevin said...

Let me get this straight. The stock market is up over 8% for the last 2 months all the while you've been short and gold is down 6% over that same period all the while you've been long. I've always ignored the COT reports as pretty much worthless but it looks like I've been wrong. I should be using them as a brilliant contrarian indicator!

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Kevin,

Thanks for your message. Please see my FAQs page for lots of info on how I handle signals that seem wrong. You might also be interested in the performance of my natural gas signal based on the COT data, which you can find by searching through recent past blog posts.