Monday, 22 September 2014

COT Report Updates Taking a Break

Hi folks,

It's with sadness that I've decided to take a break from my regular weekly Commitments of Traders updates.

I've been planning to review and update my trading setups, but I just haven't managed to find the time.

It's important to do a review like that every once in a while to take into account new data. I also wanted to check how my existing setups have performed and look at ways to improve their performance.

One observation I've made is it looks like there's a correlation between a setup's results and whether its component signals follow the trader group (as opposed to fading).

In other words, setups may work better if their component signals both follow the trader group.

I need to test that theory in depth and don't want to keep trading signals that aren't optimized as I'd like them to be.

When I've found time for this updating work, I'll check my results and consider restarting my weekly updates.

In the meanwhile, I owe an immense debt of thanks to all the readers worldwide (over 540,000 page views since I started seven years ago).

I'm especially grateful to those who contributed feedback -- and in some cases, extraordinary amounts of collaboration -- to improve our understanding of the fascinating COT data and how it can be traded.

I didn't expect this aspect of blogging when I started COTs Timer seven years ago -- the generosity and sharing of collective wisdom. I learned a great deal, and this has been a remarkable experience. I hope to see you back here one day soon.

I've updated my latest signals table one last time with last week's COT data -- though I had a technical glitch with the file for my three metals (gold, cooper and silver), so I haven't updated that data.

I also invite you to check out my Investigate This! blog for investigative journalism and my award-winning book Police Wife: The Secret Epidemic of Police Domestic Violence, now available in its updated and revised second edition on Amazon. I also blog about the widespread problem of police officer-involved domestic violence on my Police Wife blog.

Thank you again to all, and good luck in your trading and other endeavours.

P.S. Send me your email address if you want to be informed when I restart regular blog posts: aroslin1-at-yahoo-dot-ca.

P.P.S. Just noticed COTs Timer was listed last May on TraderHQ's 50 Blogs Every Serious Trader Should Read list. Belated thanks!

Monday, 15 September 2014

Natural Gas Bearish

One new signal takes effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bearish for natural gas.

All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I follow with these nifty reports.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 7 September 2014

Bullion Bullish, Banks to Cash: COT Data

Just two new signals taking effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bullish for gold

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in 200-plus markets according to the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Monday, 1 September 2014

Nasdaq-100 Bearish, Cash for Gold, Crude Oil

Three signals take effect on this morning's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100
- cash for gold and crude oil

All other signals remain the same as last week. See my latest signals table for the details.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 24 August 2014

Smart Money Bullish on SPX Amid Quiet COT Data

No new signals from the latest Commitments of Traders report Friday afternoon. Traders are relatively quiet, according to the CFTC's free weekly COT data.

Minor development: "Smart money" S&P 500 commercial hedgers have been building their net futures and options positioning as a portion of total open interest.

They're now 1.7 standard deviations above the moving average of recent data. That signal has been bullish since June 16.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. 

Good luck this week. З Днем Незалежності, Україно.

Monday, 18 August 2014

Bullish Turn for Banks, Gold; NDX to Cash

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold
- cash for the Nasdaq-100 index

Very sorry for my late update this week! See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning as reported in the free weekly COT reports from the CFTC.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 10 August 2014

Banks Bearish But SPX Traders Seem Unworried By Ukraine, Mideast Conflict

Mixed news for equities in the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark for U.S. financials) goes bearish on the coming week's open of trading based on the most recent COT data.

SPX Traders Boost Net Position

Meanwhile, my signal for the S&P 500 remains bullish. And the "smart money" commercial SPX hedgers got substantially more bullish in their futures and options net positioning as a portion of total open interest.

Seems like they're not too concerned about the stepped-up death toll in Gaza and Iraq, warnings of a possible open Russian invasion of Ukraine or the escalating Western-Russian sanctions war.

What do they know that we don't know?

See my latest signals table for all the details on how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in the markets, as reported in the COT reports.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 3 August 2014

Silver, Bond Bearish Based on CFTC's Latest COT Data

Two new trading signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Trader data: bearish for silver and the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield).

See my latest signals table for how trader positioning is shaking out in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 27 July 2014

Traders Shrug Off MH17 Downing, Mideast Fighting

Traders aren't getting overly exercised about the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 almost certainly by Kremlin-backed militia, Israel's incursion into Gaza and fighting in Iraq.

The latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday has resulted in some new signals taking effect on this week's open of trading, but not a huge swing toward uncertainty or bearishness.

New signals:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100 and gold
- cash for copper (which had previously been bearish)
- bullish for crude oil

The gold bearish signal is more evidence that traders aren't freaking out. Serious market trepidation would likely have pushed traders to be bullish gold.

S&P 500 Traders Bullish

Other signals remain the same, including S&P 500, which is bullish. In fact, S&P 500 commercial traders substantially increasing their net futures and options position this past week as a portion of total open interest.

This stands in contrast to how commercial hedgers reacted when Russia first invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and started fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine in February.

The "smart money" commercials seem either used to the "new normal" or not overly concerned about market impacts of amped threats of Western sanctions against Russia -- or both.

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sunday, 20 July 2014

Banks From Bearish to Cash

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark of U.S. financials) goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

That's based on the latest data in the Commitments of Traders reports issued free every week by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Other signals based on the COT reports remain the same this week: bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for copper, all else in cash.

See my latest signals table for details on how trader groups are positioned in the markets.

Good luck this week, and condolences to family and friends of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 victims.

For my MH-17 timeline chronicling evidence about who perpetrated the disaster, see my investigative journalism site.

Monday, 14 July 2014

Cash for Natural Gas, Other Signals Remain the Same

My latest signals table is now updated with the most recent data from the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The only signal taking effect on this morning's open of trading (as noted in my post earlier this morning): cash for natural gas.

See my table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry I missed the open of trading by a few minutes with this post!

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas to Cash

My natural gas signal goes to cash on this morning's open of trading, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

I'll be back here shortly with a new post and an updated latest signals table.

Sunday, 6 July 2014

Banks, Copper Bearish; Natgas bullish; Bond to Cash

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish
- natural gas: bullish
- copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash

My other six signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and my other signals based on the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a great week.

Saturday, 28 June 2014

Natural Gas, Silver to Cash

Two signals go to cash on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: natural gas and silver.

That means eight of my 10 signals based on the free weekly COT reports will be in cash.

Only the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond are bullish.

See my latest signals table for detailed numbers on trader positioning in all 10 markets to see if you can figure out what it all means.

Good luck this week, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers.

Also, Happy Fourth of July to U.S. readers later in the week.

Sunday, 22 June 2014

Nasdaq-100 Signal to Cash After Three Months Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- cash for the Nasdaq-100 (which has been bullish three months, since March 17)
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond (which means the bond yield would fall)

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Other signals remain the same as last week.

Good luck this week, and to Quebec readers, Joyeuse St-Jean!

Sunday, 15 June 2014

S&P 500 Goes Bullish: COT Data

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are betting big on the equities rally, if positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is any guide.

The latest Commitments of Traders report shows commercials boosting their net futures and options position to 1.9 standard deviations above the recent average, up from 1.11 standard deviations last week.

My SPX position moves from bearish to bullish on the coming week's open of trading thanks to the bullish commercial trader positioning.

See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trader using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and Happy Father's Day to my dad and all the other dad readers out there. Hope you had a great day.

Sunday, 8 June 2014

S&P 500 Sentiment Keeps Looking Up, While Banks, Crude and Copper Cash Out: COT Reports

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading thanks to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

It's cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and copper based on my reading of the COT reports issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Meanwhile, "smart money" commercial hedger sentiment in S&P 500 futures and options continues to improve, as you can see on my latest signals table.

My SPX signal goes from bearish to bullish on next week's open of trading (i.e. the week of June 16).

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

S&P 500 Traders Love the Rally; Natural Gas Goes Bearish: CFTC's COT Report

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are giving the all-clear sign for an equities rally, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options continued a seven-week build-up in their net position as a portion of total open interest.

Their positioning has flipped my signal from bearish, which it has been since April 14, to bullish, with a trade delay of two weeks. That means the signal takes effect the open of trading the week of June 16.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the S&P 500 and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark of U.S. financials, also goes bullish, but this one with no trade delay -- i.e. taking effect on this week's open of trading.

As well, natural gas goes from cash to bearish on this week's open, while crude oil goes bullish.

Good luck this week.

Monday, 26 May 2014

COTs Timer On the Web

Congrats to us! COTs Timer was mentioned on the list "50 Blogs Every Serious Trader Should Read" over at Trader HQ.

Thanks, guys, and thanks to atoast2trading for the mention on Twitter.

Saturday, 24 May 2014

S&P 500 Commercials Steadily Less Bearish

No new signals this week. Another quiet week in the land of the Commitments of Traders reports.

See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.

The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.

Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 18 May 2014

Copper Bearish: COT Data Signal

One signal takes effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bearish for copper.

That's based on commercial hedgers in copper future and options getting significantly bearish in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest, according to Friday's weekly COT update.

Large speculators had already had a bearish posture in their total open interest -- the other component of my copper signal.

See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other nine signals I trade using the COT data. My other existing signals remain the same this week.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 11 May 2014

Traders Quiet: COT Report

All quiet in the land of COT.

My signals from last week remain the same this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Trader positioning did shift in markets as usual, but not enough to switch any of my signals, as you can see on my newly updated latest signals table.

Good luck this week - and Happy Mother's Day to all you moms out there, including my own. Я тебе люблю.

Monday, 5 May 2014

Banks, Gold to Cash: COT Signals

Two signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold both go to cash this week.

See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Good luck this week.

Sunday, 27 April 2014

Cash for Crude, Natural Gas and Copper

Three setups go to cash on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

They are natural gas, crude oil and copper.

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning for these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.


Thursday, 24 April 2014

Bullish This Week for Banks and Silver, Bearish for Crude

Apologies for missing my usual weekly post early this week. Easter festivities got in the way.

I did, however, update my latest signals table with last week's data from the Commitments of Traders report.

Signals that took effect this week: bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and silver, bearish for crude oil. Other signals remained the same.

Tune back in after Friday's COT report for an updated signals table and a (more timely!) post here.

Sunday, 13 April 2014

S&P 500 Bearish Signal This Week

Trader positioning continued to get more bearish across most equities and commodities, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report released Friday.

"Smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options have steadily reduced their net position as a portion of total open interest for six weeks.

They now stand at 1.39 standard deviations below my moving average.

The decline in their positioning started the week mass protests ousted Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych and Kremlin responded with an armed takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

My S&P 500 signal goes bearish on the open of trading this coming week.

Also going bearish this week is copper.

My latest signals table now shows a wall of red bearish signals for six of my 10 trading setups based on the free weekly COT reports.

Three signals are in cash, and only the Nasdaq-100 is bullish.

Good luck this week.

Saturday, 5 April 2014

Commercial Hedgers Keep Up Heavily Bearish S&P 500 Stance

Was yesterday's market bloodbath a one-off -- or the start of something more serious?

Could be more of the latter, if trader positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is anything to go by.

As discussed in previous posts, the upward trend of positioning by "smart money" commercial hedgers that started in December is over. 

(Why "smart money"? That's because the S&P 500 commercial traders tend to get heavily bullish in their positioning when markets are about to go up and vice versa.)

That uptrend coincided with a nice little rally.

Friday's COT data shows the commercials at 1.32 standard deviations below my moving average in their net position as a percentage of total open interest. 

Gold Joins Silver in Bearish Column

The downturn in trader positioning has pushed my S&P 500 signal to bearish on the open of trading the week of April 14. 

See my latest signals table for more details.

As usual, though, the news from the COT data is somewhat mixed. My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes bullish for Monday's open of trading. And my signal for the Nasdaq-100 continues to be bullish.

In commodities, my signal for gold goes bearish on Monday's open, too -- joining my already bearish silver signal.

Natural gas also remains bearish.

Good luck this week.


Saturday, 29 March 2014

Smart Money Traders Go Bearish on S&P 500

"Smart money" commercial hedgers have thrown in the towel on the S&P 500 rally since the New Year, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The commercial net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest dropped to 1.34 standard deviations below my moving average based on the latest COT data.

That was enough to change my S&P 500 signal from bullish, which it's been since Feb. 10, to bearish. The signal will take effect in two weeks' time on the open of trading the week of April 14.

Gold to Cash

As noted last week, S&P 500 commercial trader positioning had climbed 10 straight weeks starting in December, but started to reverse immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine's Crimea.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.

In other COT data, gold goes to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

Good luck next week.

Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Sunday, 23 March 2014

Russia Gloom Stalks Market

Last week's bullish trader positioning -- seemingly on optimism over the West's mild sanctions against Russia -- has given way to oodles of gloom in the latest Commitments of Traders report.

Most startling is the collapse in "smart money" commercial hedger positioning in Nikkei futures and options.

From last week's astonishing 3.87 standard deviations above the moving average, Friday's COT report saw commercial total open interest cleavered to 2.22 standard deviations below the average.

I don't think I've ever seen such a massive reversal in the history of the data. My Nikkei signal remains in cash.

See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trade using the weekly COT data.

Banks, Gas Bearish

A similar, though less drastic move took place in the 3-month Eurodollar, a key international liquidity measure.

The Eurodollar gives me signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index.

My bullish BKX signal last week goes to cash on this week's open of trading due to a sharp decline in the large speculator net futures and options position as a percentage of total open interest.

It's also worth noting what's going on in S&P 500 futures and options. Here, commercial hedgers for the second straight week are reversing their net position as a percentage of the total open interest.

While my signal is still bullish for now, the two-week decline has put an end to 10 straight weeks of increasingly bullish net positioning that started in December.

Reversal Started After Russian Invasion

Notably, the decline in S&P 500 positioning started the Tuesday after Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and organized a widely condemned, fraud-riddled referendum there in an attempt to annex the strategic region.

Meanwhile, gold goes bullish on this week's open -- another sign of market fear.

My signal for silver remains bearish, and the two precious metals rarely diverge.

The explanation could be that traders see value in gold purely as a safe haven, while silver is being seen from the more conventional prism of commodity-positive growth, which traders are now nervous about.

Also noteworthy: Natural gas goes bearish on this week's open.

Good luck this week.

Saturday, 15 March 2014

Bullish Traders Hopeful on Crimea -- Or in for Surprise?

The bullish move in trader positioning in the S&P 500 futures and options is now being confirmed in other equity markets, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

The free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pushed my signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nasdaq-100 to bullish for the coming week of trading.

As well, my signal for the Nikkei, which had been bearish, has now gone to cash for this week's open of trading.

The commercial hedgers and small traders, both of whom I follow for my Nikkei signal, are now at astonishing levels of bullish positioning, as you can see on my latest signals table.

(Meanwhile, in commodities, my gold signal, long bullish, also moves to cash on the coming week's open.)

Market Hopes for Resolution in Crimea?

What does the bullish equities move mean? Perhaps the market doesn't believe Russia's Vladimir Putin will mount a feared full-scale invasion of Ukraine after Sunday's fraud-riddled referendum in Crimea.

Or perhaps the trader positioning last Tuesday -- which the current COT report reflects -- was based on market hopes of a resolution to the Crimea crisis, which have since failed to materialize.

If it's the latter case and Russian military incursions into Ukraine continue, the next COT report could promise a sharp reversal of bullish equity positioning.

Monday, 10 March 2014

BKX to Cash, Silver Bearish

Two signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders report:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for silver

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week!

Sunday, 9 March 2014

Update Delay


My next Commitments of Traders update will be delayed until Monday.

I'm currently on the road in beautiful Costa Rica, but will be back at our temporary home away from home in Samara tomorrow and ready for my next post.

Sorry for the delay.

Meanwhile, I've been closely following the situation in Ukraine and saw the picture to the right, which I wanted to share.

Sunday, 2 March 2014

Natural Gas to Cash, NDX Bearish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100 index
- cash for natural gas

See my latest signals table for detailed data on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the CFTC`s free weekly COT reports.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 23 February 2014

Natural Gas, Bond Bearish

Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for natural gas and the 30-year Treasury bond
- cash for silver and crude oil

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and a special message to Ukrainian readers:

Deepest sympathies to those who lost loved ones in the revolution of the past few days in Ukraine.

Their sacrifice is an example to the world of the power of the people in fighting oppression and corruption. Bічнaя пам'ять.

Monday, 17 February 2014

Bullish Equities Move Solidifies in CFTC's Latest COT Report

The bullish move in trader positioning in equities seems to be solidifying a little, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Signals taking effect on this week's open of trading:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for the Nikkei
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond

My signal for the S&P 500 went from bearish to bullish last week. Net "smart money" commercial hedger positioning in S&P 500 futures and options remains at extremes of optimism in Friday's COT update.

The Nasdaq-100 was already bullish.

See my latest signals table for trader positioning data in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Nikkei move in the other direction is odd, but no one can say the COT data makes complete sense and doesn't leave you guessing.

Good luck this week.

Saturday, 8 February 2014

S&P 500 Smart Money Boosts Bullish Positioning

Bullish positioning has gotten even stronger among "smart money" commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report puts the commercial net position as a portion of total open interest at 2.58 standard deviations above the average of recent data, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes bullish on next week's open of trading based on the recent data. The signals aren't always right, but the recent move could mean the correction in equities has a good chance of being over.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest positioning in the 10 markets I trade based on the free weekly COT reports.

Note that I've never found a significant correlation between week-to-week changes in COT positioning and S&P 500 prices. But the extent of the bullish net positioning could mean a longer-lasting up-move is coming, rather than a shorter-term rebound in a bearish downturn.

Other signals taking effect on next week's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and bullish for silver. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond turns bullish in a week's time on the open the week of Feb. 17.

Good luck this week, and Happy Valentine's Day

Sunday, 2 February 2014

Sharp Bullish Move in S&P 500 Commercial Posture

Silver turns bearish on the coming week's open of trading, while the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash.

This, according to my trading signals based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Recent COT data has also moved my currently bearish signal for the S&P 500 to bullish, with the signal taking effect in a week's time on the open of trading on Feb. 10 (i.e. the signal remains bearish one more week due to the trade delay I use for that setup.)

That's due to highly bullish positioning by the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options. In fact, the commercials are more relatively bullish than any time since last summer in their net positioning as a percentage of the total open interest.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. Good luck this week.

Sunday, 26 January 2014

Gas to Cash, Crude Bearish

Two signals take effect on this coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders report:

- cash for natural gas
- bearish for crude oil

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the CFTC. Good luck this week.

Saturday, 18 January 2014

Natural Gas Bearish for One Week Only

A few new signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for natural gas (this signal to last just one week)
- bullish for gold and the 30-year Treasury bond
- cash for copper

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.

Good luck this week.

Saturday, 11 January 2014

S&P 500 Bearish, While Banks Aren't

Three new signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for the S&P 500
- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- cash for silver

The S&P 500 and BKX signals are obviously contradictory, but that often happens with the COT data. Not all of the signals are correct. Or both signals could be profitable within their own time frame.

In any case, be sure to check my latest signals table for more details on the new COT data, which details how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in over 200 markets worldwide.

Good luck this week!

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Storms Brings Flurry of New COT Signals

Welcome to COTs Timer's first post in 2014. Lots of new signals to report taking effect on this week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for the details and trader positioning in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The new signals:

- Cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, natural gas and gold.
- Bearish for silver.

Sorry for my delayed post this week. There was last week's holiday delay for the data - plus we missed our connection thanks to storm flight chaos in New York last night.

Somehow, we managed to get out - with our luggage no less! - in between two storms and are now relaxing in Florida. It was a true Christmas (by the old calendar) miracle!

I hope the storms and cold didn't disrupt your weekend too badly either. Good luck this week.

Saturday, 4 January 2014

Holiday Delay for COT Report

Happy New Year! The latest Commitments of Traders report will be delayed until Monday because of the New Year holiday.

See you back here Monday or Tuesday with a new COT update.