Sunday 23 February 2014

Natural Gas, Bond Bearish

Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for natural gas and the 30-year Treasury bond
- cash for silver and crude oil

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and a special message to Ukrainian readers:

Deepest sympathies to those who lost loved ones in the revolution of the past few days in Ukraine.

Their sacrifice is an example to the world of the power of the people in fighting oppression and corruption. Bічнaя пам'ять.

Monday 17 February 2014

Bullish Equities Move Solidifies in CFTC's Latest COT Report

The bullish move in trader positioning in equities seems to be solidifying a little, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Signals taking effect on this week's open of trading:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for the Nikkei
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond

My signal for the S&P 500 went from bearish to bullish last week. Net "smart money" commercial hedger positioning in S&P 500 futures and options remains at extremes of optimism in Friday's COT update.

The Nasdaq-100 was already bullish.

See my latest signals table for trader positioning data in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Nikkei move in the other direction is odd, but no one can say the COT data makes complete sense and doesn't leave you guessing.

Good luck this week.

Saturday 8 February 2014

S&P 500 Smart Money Boosts Bullish Positioning

Bullish positioning has gotten even stronger among "smart money" commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report puts the commercial net position as a portion of total open interest at 2.58 standard deviations above the average of recent data, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes bullish on next week's open of trading based on the recent data. The signals aren't always right, but the recent move could mean the correction in equities has a good chance of being over.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest positioning in the 10 markets I trade based on the free weekly COT reports.

Note that I've never found a significant correlation between week-to-week changes in COT positioning and S&P 500 prices. But the extent of the bullish net positioning could mean a longer-lasting up-move is coming, rather than a shorter-term rebound in a bearish downturn.

Other signals taking effect on next week's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and bullish for silver. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond turns bullish in a week's time on the open the week of Feb. 17.

Good luck this week, and Happy Valentine's Day

Sunday 2 February 2014

Sharp Bullish Move in S&P 500 Commercial Posture

Silver turns bearish on the coming week's open of trading, while the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash.

This, according to my trading signals based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Recent COT data has also moved my currently bearish signal for the S&P 500 to bullish, with the signal taking effect in a week's time on the open of trading on Feb. 10 (i.e. the signal remains bearish one more week due to the trade delay I use for that setup.)

That's due to highly bullish positioning by the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options. In fact, the commercials are more relatively bullish than any time since last summer in their net positioning as a percentage of the total open interest.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. Good luck this week.