Sunday 27 July 2014

Traders Shrug Off MH17 Downing, Mideast Fighting

Traders aren't getting overly exercised about the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 almost certainly by Kremlin-backed militia, Israel's incursion into Gaza and fighting in Iraq.

The latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday has resulted in some new signals taking effect on this week's open of trading, but not a huge swing toward uncertainty or bearishness.

New signals:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100 and gold
- cash for copper (which had previously been bearish)
- bullish for crude oil

The gold bearish signal is more evidence that traders aren't freaking out. Serious market trepidation would likely have pushed traders to be bullish gold.

S&P 500 Traders Bullish

Other signals remain the same, including S&P 500, which is bullish. In fact, S&P 500 commercial traders substantially increasing their net futures and options position this past week as a portion of total open interest.

This stands in contrast to how commercial hedgers reacted when Russia first invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and started fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine in February.

The "smart money" commercials seem either used to the "new normal" or not overly concerned about market impacts of amped threats of Western sanctions against Russia -- or both.

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sunday 20 July 2014

Banks From Bearish to Cash

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark of U.S. financials) goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

That's based on the latest data in the Commitments of Traders reports issued free every week by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Other signals based on the COT reports remain the same this week: bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for copper, all else in cash.

See my latest signals table for details on how trader groups are positioned in the markets.

Good luck this week, and condolences to family and friends of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 victims.

For my MH-17 timeline chronicling evidence about who perpetrated the disaster, see my investigative journalism site.

Monday 14 July 2014

Cash for Natural Gas, Other Signals Remain the Same

My latest signals table is now updated with the most recent data from the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The only signal taking effect on this morning's open of trading (as noted in my post earlier this morning): cash for natural gas.

See my table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry I missed the open of trading by a few minutes with this post!

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas to Cash

My natural gas signal goes to cash on this morning's open of trading, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

I'll be back here shortly with a new post and an updated latest signals table.

Sunday 6 July 2014

Banks, Copper Bearish; Natgas bullish; Bond to Cash

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish
- natural gas: bullish
- copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash

My other six signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and my other signals based on the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a great week.