tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post3284172322978368968..comments2024-01-31T01:36:09.111-05:00Comments on COTs Timer: Data Sez: Gotta Get Gas, 10-Year Yield To RiseAlex Roslinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-52101834678874651422008-09-05T09:26:00.000-04:002008-09-05T09:26:00.000-04:00Hi Anonymous from Sept. 1,I don't trade on rumours...Hi Anonymous from Sept. 1,<BR/><BR/>I don't trade on rumours, much less solid news widely reported in every paper. If gold is subject to a conspiracy that supercedes all other market dynamics, why would anyone trade it? In fact, I've found gold acts like any other market, both in how it responds to the COT data and in how it trades technically. <BR/><BR/>Net long positions by the commercials are Alex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-45554933499277118652008-09-04T14:50:00.000-04:002008-09-04T14:50:00.000-04:00Hi Pete,I don't know if I'd call it a trading rang...Hi Pete,<BR/><BR/>I don't know if I'd call it a trading range. It's more trying to find a bottom. It's well above the bottom from earlier this summer. That would be important support. If it fails decisively, that would be very bearish indeed.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>AlexAlex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-56108420531172222022008-09-04T14:40:00.000-04:002008-09-04T14:40:00.000-04:00Hi Alex,Interesting that Nat.Gas is up a bit just ...Hi Alex,<BR/><BR/>Interesting that Nat.Gas is up a bit just now, when the DOW is down -330 points! Is this a head fake or it's simply oversold? I guess tomorrow's inventory will set the direction. <BR/><BR/>BTW: Do you think this is it or the DOW is in a trading range of 11,200 to 11,700? It's been selling off every time it re-tracks up. <BR/><BR/>Rgds.<BR/>PeteAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-17290251367029624302008-09-03T10:18:00.000-04:002008-09-03T10:18:00.000-04:00Hi Pete,For natgas, looks like there might be supp...Hi Pete,<BR/><BR/>For natgas, looks like there might be support around here on the chart from last fall 2007, when there were rallies from around these levels in Sept./Oct. and Dec. 2007.<BR/><BR/>The Stock Trader's Almanac folks say a weak September and October could forecast a loss for the incumbent party, followed by a strong November. If the reverse happens, maybe it means McCain has the edgeAlex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-57318562974634337322008-09-03T10:14:00.000-04:002008-09-03T10:14:00.000-04:00My wishful thinking is that I hope the people that...My wishful thinking is that I hope the people that are holding those Nat.Gas (UNG) $60 & $70 calls for April.2009 are much smarter than everyone... On the contrary they could just be hedging their short positions...<BR/><BR/>I'm curious what the COTs will show in the coming weeks as we approach Oct... Market emotion and psychology is more negative. But since it's an election year, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-23277611883502699282008-09-03T09:46:00.000-04:002008-09-03T09:46:00.000-04:00Hi Pete,I hear you. I did execute the buy on Tuesd...Hi Pete,<BR/><BR/>I hear you. I did execute the buy on Tuesday's open, which took effect after the massive gap down, so it's not too badly under water right now. This market is certainly one of the most volatile I've looked at and has blown up lots of traders. The equity curve for my setup is very volatile too, so I trade it with the expectation that it will often disappoint - and with an Alex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-32538740534252359512008-09-03T08:39:00.000-04:002008-09-03T08:39:00.000-04:00Hi Alex,Did you execute your Nat.Gas or other sign...Hi Alex,<BR/><BR/>Did you execute your Nat.Gas or other signals yesterday or waiting until this week's COTs? I just can't seem to beat this Nat.Gas trade...been on the wrong side too many times of this down trend :(<BR/><BR/>Rgds.<BR/>PeterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-52946686692398024082008-09-02T09:31:00.000-04:002008-09-02T09:31:00.000-04:00Hi Anonymous,The small traders give the most profi...Hi Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>The small traders give the most profitable, statistically robust trading setup I've been able to find so far. Combining signals from two groups of traders may yield a still-better setup, but so far haven't had the chance to do the testing.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>AlexAlex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-50242662869066462892008-09-02T09:30:00.000-04:002008-09-02T09:30:00.000-04:00Hi Brian,I am using a 200% leveraged fund, HNU, tr...Hi Brian,<BR/><BR/>I am using a 200% leveraged fund, HNU, trading in Toronto.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>AlexAlex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-65413568572159981702008-09-02T09:25:00.000-04:002008-09-02T09:25:00.000-04:00Hi Pete,Might be an interesting idea, but how woul...Hi Pete,<BR/><BR/>Might be an interesting idea, but how would you figure out which news events to include and which not? As well, the more rules you have in a trading system, the more curve-fitting it has and, ergo, less predictive value.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>AlexAlex Roslinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05203588321742142651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-79736054893043309432008-09-02T08:15:00.000-04:002008-09-02T08:15:00.000-04:00Hi Alex,Since the COTS is based on data as of Aug....Hi Alex,<BR/><BR/>Since the COTS is based on data as of Aug.26 - does your system factor in some account or another for the Oil and Gas inventories released a day and two afterward? Last week's Nat.Gas inventory seems very bearish, as a huge over supply awaits. Then the storm was not a factor...So wouldn't this week's COT report be a better indicator?<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>Pete.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-51525914777334121792008-09-01T15:19:00.000-04:002008-09-01T15:19:00.000-04:00there are rumors circulating that the short positi...there are rumors circulating that the short position on gold of commercial traders is due to three large u.s. banks, which are this way trying to push the gold price down. what are your thoughts on this? gold has been oversold when it was trading under $800 two weeks ago, and other precious metals in related markets have net long positions of commercial traders, so there is no logic that gold Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-79155784627992089622008-08-30T17:37:00.000-04:002008-08-30T17:37:00.000-04:00Hi Alex:What vehicle do you use to trade the Natur...Hi Alex:<BR/><BR/>What vehicle do you use to trade the Natural Gas setup?<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/><BR/>BrianAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7025352174566040697.post-26973296011564032842008-08-30T03:01:00.000-04:002008-08-30T03:01:00.000-04:00so gold is still bearish this week? why do you fol...so gold is still bearish this week? why do you follow the small traders?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com