Banks Bullish, Nikkei Bearish, Bond to Cash

Mixed bag of new signals taking effect on Monday's open of trading:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (this based on bullish positioning in the three-month Eurodollar contract)
- bearish for the Nikkei Stock Average
- cash for the 30-year Treasury bond

Meanwhile, my lovely and talented natural gas setup is still bullish, and knock on wood, doing very nicely indeed. Gold is also doing well in bullish mode.

The signals are based on my setups built around the Commitments of Traders reports, those nifty free weekly reports on trillions of dollars of derivatives positioning in nearly 150 markets, issued by the good people at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, God love em. See more details on the positioning in these and the other markets I follow on my latest signals table. Good luck this week.

Copper to Cash; Going for Gold and Gas

Three signals take effect on today's open of trading based on my COTs Timer strategy: cash for copper and bullish for gold and natural gas. Sorry about the last-minute update this week. I'm away in Costa Rica! Beautiful place, and very nice people, but oh so very hot! Check my latest signals table for more details on these and my other setups. Good luck this week.

SPX Small Traders Get Excessively Bullish

The wrong-way small traders have gotten excessively bullish in their positioning in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report. That's helped push my setup for the S&P 500 into the bearish column with a three-week trade delay, meaning the trade takes effect the open of the week of Feb. 5.

Meanwhile, my BKX Bank Index setup has gone to cash this week.

See the details for these and the other COT data I am following with my COTs Timer system on my newly updated latest signals table.

Sorry about the delayed post this week. I was on the road travelling to beautiful and sunny Costa Rica. What a gorgeous place! Good luck this week.

Banks Bearish, Copper and Bond Bullish

U.S. banks are bearish as of this week's open of trading, according to my trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index based on the Commitments of Traders reports. Copper, on the other hand, goes bullish, as does my setup for the 30-year Treasury bond. Check out the details on my latest signals table. Good luck this week.

New Year Means Cash for Nikkei and Natural Gas

Happy New Year! I've just updated my latest signals table based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Signals taking effect the first week of 2012: Nikkei and natural gas to cash. See the table for more fascinating details about trader positioning in the eight markets I'm following with my COTs Timer trading strategy.

Thanks to readers for following this blog and your feedback over the last year and since I started it in 2007. I've learned more from readers' comments than I could have imagined, and that's helped me improve this trading system immeasurably. I hope 2011 was a good year for you and your loved ones and that 2012 is your best year so far. May all your dreams come true.

S&P 500 and Copper Bearish - And a Great Big Ho Ho Ho!

I take it back. We got a beautiful bunch of fluffy snow this week to cover everything in a great big layer of snow just in time for Christmas. The wood stove is fired up, and we're as excited as can be for Santa up here in Quebec's Eastern Townships.

If only the news was so good coming out of the grinch-like trader positioning reflected in this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As you'll see from my newly updated latest signals table, derivatives positioning has turned pretty sour pretty much across the board. Setups turning bearish on next week's open of trading: S&P 500 and copper. Crude oil, the Nikkei and natural gas were already bearish. The rest of my setups are in cash. None are bullish at this point.

But try not to think about that too much this holiday weekend! Happy holidays to all.

Out of Gold, Bearish for Gas and Nikkei

Three signals take effect on next Monday's open of trading, coming out of my trading setups based on the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- Gold goes from bullish to cash. This is based on excessive bullishness in the large speculator total open interest starting several weeks ago. We could be in cash (or potentially bearish) for awhile.

- Natural gas goes from bullish to bearish. This signal will last two weeks.

- Nikkei goes from bullish to bearish. This signal will last two weeks too.

In other news, the S&P 500 data is still flipping around like a fish on the dock. The latest COT data issued this afternoon shows that the wrong-way small trader crowd has reduced its net positioning to the point that it's actually bullish. So that puts the overall setup, which goes to bearish on Dec. 26, back into cash on Jan. 9.

Hope you have a good weekend, and good luck next week! It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas - except where's all the snow?! This time last year, we'd had weeks and weeks of non-stop snow up here in Quebec ski country. This year, we've just had lots of rain. I'm dreaming of a muddy Christmas. Thanks for nothing, global warming!

Cash for SPX, Bearish for Bond

Short post this week - apologies! My signals table is now updated based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data. Signals for Monday's open: cash for the S&P 500 and bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond. Some of my other setups also have new signals for later in the month. See the signals table for all the details on how trader positioning looks right now. Hope you have a good weekend, and good luck next week.

Late December Awash in Bearish Red

I somehow missed doing my promised update after Monday's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report came out. Very sorry! All the latest data based on today's new COT report has now been crunched by my chastized yet keen team here at COTs Timer central, and my latest signals table has been updated.

As it happens, last Monday's data didn't add any other signals than the ones I mentioned in last Saturday's post. 

The new data from today, however, is a different story, as you'll see on my signals table. No new signals to report for next week's open, but after that, watch out. I think the best way to describe the latest COT data is "Yikes." Or perhaps "bahumbug." Santa will not be pleased. Late December is awash in bearish red. But try not to think about that right now! Tis the season to be jolly. Hope you have a great weekend, and good luck this coming week.

Holiday Delay - A Few New Signals

Hope U.S. readers had a yummy turkey last week. The holiday delay means Friday's Commitments of Traders report will come out Monday, so I'll only update my latest signals table after that. But there are still a few signals taking effect on Monday's open based on data until now. To whit:

- S&P 500: Goes from cash to bearish

- Crude oil: Goes from cash to bearish

- Natural gas: Goes from bearish to bullish

- 30-year Treasury bond: Goes from bullish to cash

These signals are all marked on my signals table. But please note that I haven't updated the rest of that table, including the column for the coming week's "current signal," because of the holiday-delayed data. Thus, the signals in that column are for last week. Have a good weekend, and see you back here after Monday's data release.

Copper to Cash, Bond Bullish

Two signals taking effect this coming week's open of trading: copper goes to cash, while the 30-year Treasury bond goes bullish. See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I follow using the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

Trader Data Good for Nikkei, Bad for Gas, Toss-up for Bond

Some signals taking effect on this week's open: the Nikkei goes to bullish, natural gas goes to bearish and the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash. See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and other markets as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The S&P 500 data is notably striking lately, with the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting highly bearish in their net positioning as a percentage of the total open interest, while the not-so-smart small traders remain super-bullish (whose signal I fade in my setup). My setup goes bearish the week of Nov. 28. What could it mean? These traders seem to be betting the cock-up in Europe gets even worse.

But meanwhile, the data for copper looks interesting too. The setup for the "smartest metal" remains bearish another week, then goes to cash. The data has just now also turned bullish, which historically has tended to mean price rises starting six to eight weeks down the line, depending on the trader group.

Hope you stay out of trouble this week! See you back here Friday.

Holiday Delay

Friday's Commitments of Traders report is delayed until today due to a holiday delay with Remembrance Day. See you back here later today with a post about the latest weekly trader data. Meanwhile, as you'll see on my latest signals table, my natural gas trading setup goes from cash to bearish on this morning's open of trading owing to data from recent weeks.

BKX, Gas to Cash, Bond Bullish, Late Nov. Doldrums in Sight for SPX

Signals taking effect on Monday's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and natural gas, and bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond. To see more details on these markets and for other signals taking effect in coming weeks, check my newly updated latest signals table based on Friday's trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders report. Hint: New signal coming up for SPX, and it doesn't look good for bulls, no sir. Good luck this week!

Nikkei, Crude to Cash

Two signals taking effect on today's open of trading. My trading setups for the Nikkei and crude oil both go to cash. See my latest signals table for the details on these and my other setups based on trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In other markets, my natural gas signal goes from bearish to cash on Nov. 7, while my copper setup goes from bearish to cash on Nov. 21. Good luck this week, and Happy Halloween.