Monday, 18 August 2014

Bullish Turn for Banks, Gold; NDX to Cash

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold
- cash for the Nasdaq-100 index

Very sorry for my late update this week! See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning as reported in the free weekly COT reports from the CFTC.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 10 August 2014

Banks Bearish But SPX Traders Seem Unworried By Ukraine, Mideast Conflict

Mixed news for equities in the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark for U.S. financials) goes bearish on the coming week's open of trading based on the most recent COT data.

SPX Traders Boost Net Position

Meanwhile, my signal for the S&P 500 remains bullish. And the "smart money" commercial SPX hedgers got substantially more bullish in their futures and options net positioning as a portion of total open interest.

Seems like they're not too concerned about the stepped-up death toll in Gaza and Iraq, warnings of a possible open Russian invasion of Ukraine or the escalating Western-Russian sanctions war.

What do they know that we don't know?

See my latest signals table for all the details on how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in the markets, as reported in the COT reports.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 3 August 2014

Silver, Bond Bearish Based on CFTC's Latest COT Data

Two new trading signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Trader data: bearish for silver and the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield).

See my latest signals table for how trader positioning is shaking out in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 27 July 2014

Traders Shrug Off MH17 Downing, Mideast Fighting

Traders aren't getting overly exercised about the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 almost certainly by Kremlin-backed militia, Israel's incursion into Gaza and fighting in Iraq.

The latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday has resulted in some new signals taking effect on this week's open of trading, but not a huge swing toward uncertainty or bearishness.

New signals:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100 and gold
- cash for copper (which had previously been bearish)
- bullish for crude oil

The gold bearish signal is more evidence that traders aren't freaking out. Serious market trepidation would likely have pushed traders to be bullish gold.

S&P 500 Traders Bullish

Other signals remain the same, including S&P 500, which is bullish. In fact, S&P 500 commercial traders substantially increasing their net futures and options position this past week as a portion of total open interest.

This stands in contrast to how commercial hedgers reacted when Russia first invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and started fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine in February.

The "smart money" commercials seem either used to the "new normal" or not overly concerned about market impacts of amped threats of Western sanctions against Russia -- or both.

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sunday, 20 July 2014

Banks From Bearish to Cash

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark of U.S. financials) goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

That's based on the latest data in the Commitments of Traders reports issued free every week by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Other signals based on the COT reports remain the same this week: bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for copper, all else in cash.

See my latest signals table for details on how trader groups are positioned in the markets.

Good luck this week, and condolences to family and friends of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 victims.

For my MH-17 timeline chronicling evidence about who perpetrated the disaster, see my investigative journalism site.

Monday, 14 July 2014

Cash for Natural Gas, Other Signals Remain the Same

My latest signals table is now updated with the most recent data from the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The only signal taking effect on this morning's open of trading (as noted in my post earlier this morning): cash for natural gas.

See my table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry I missed the open of trading by a few minutes with this post!

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas to Cash

My natural gas signal goes to cash on this morning's open of trading, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

I'll be back here shortly with a new post and an updated latest signals table.

Sunday, 6 July 2014

Banks, Copper Bearish; Natgas bullish; Bond to Cash

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish
- natural gas: bullish
- copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash

My other six signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and my other signals based on the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a great week.

Saturday, 28 June 2014

Natural Gas, Silver to Cash

Two signals go to cash on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: natural gas and silver.

That means eight of my 10 signals based on the free weekly COT reports will be in cash.

Only the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond are bullish.

See my latest signals table for detailed numbers on trader positioning in all 10 markets to see if you can figure out what it all means.

Good luck this week, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers.

Also, Happy Fourth of July to U.S. readers later in the week.

Sunday, 22 June 2014

Nasdaq-100 Signal to Cash After Three Months Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- cash for the Nasdaq-100 (which has been bullish three months, since March 17)
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond (which means the bond yield would fall)

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Other signals remain the same as last week.

Good luck this week, and to Quebec readers, Joyeuse St-Jean!

Sunday, 15 June 2014

S&P 500 Goes Bullish: COT Data

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are betting big on the equities rally, if positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is any guide.

The latest Commitments of Traders report shows commercials boosting their net futures and options position to 1.9 standard deviations above the recent average, up from 1.11 standard deviations last week.

My SPX position moves from bearish to bullish on the coming week's open of trading thanks to the bullish commercial trader positioning.

See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trader using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and Happy Father's Day to my dad and all the other dad readers out there. Hope you had a great day.

Sunday, 8 June 2014

S&P 500 Sentiment Keeps Looking Up, While Banks, Crude and Copper Cash Out: COT Reports

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading thanks to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

It's cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and copper based on my reading of the COT reports issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Meanwhile, "smart money" commercial hedger sentiment in S&P 500 futures and options continues to improve, as you can see on my latest signals table.

My SPX signal goes from bearish to bullish on next week's open of trading (i.e. the week of June 16).

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

S&P 500 Traders Love the Rally; Natural Gas Goes Bearish: CFTC's COT Report

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are giving the all-clear sign for an equities rally, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options continued a seven-week build-up in their net position as a portion of total open interest.

Their positioning has flipped my signal from bearish, which it has been since April 14, to bullish, with a trade delay of two weeks. That means the signal takes effect the open of trading the week of June 16.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the S&P 500 and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark of U.S. financials, also goes bullish, but this one with no trade delay -- i.e. taking effect on this week's open of trading.

As well, natural gas goes from cash to bearish on this week's open, while crude oil goes bullish.

Good luck this week.

Monday, 26 May 2014

COTs Timer On the Web

Congrats to us! COTs Timer was mentioned on the list "50 Blogs Every Serious Trader Should Read" over at Trader HQ.

Thanks, guys, and thanks to atoast2trading for the mention on Twitter.

Saturday, 24 May 2014

S&P 500 Commercials Steadily Less Bearish

No new signals this week. Another quiet week in the land of the Commitments of Traders reports.

See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.

The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.

Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.

Good luck this week.