Wasn't that fun? What a miserable market this is. Stephen Vita today called it the "strangest of all markets that I've experienced going back to 1987. It acts funky, scaring you half to death one day, then rights itself, and all those stocks that are making fresh breakouts look like they should be owned in massive quantity." That sounds about right.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Still Long Banks, Selling Natural Gas
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Alex Roslin
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4:13 PM
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Friday, November 13, 2009
No End for Market Grind
The market sausage grinder kept churning this week. Hope you kept yourself intact. Unfortunately, the Commitments of Traders report this Friday doesn't really help to clarify which way things will break from this long trading range we're stuck in. I've just updated my latest signals table with some new numbers based on that COT report. Two new signals: bearish for natural gas with a week's delay (for the open of trading on Nov. 23) and cash for my 30-year Treasury bond setup on Monday's open (Nov. 16). Some other highlights:
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Alex Roslin
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4:42 PM
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Commitments Data Delayed
Appears to be some kind of problem at the CFTC site this afternoon. None of the Commitments of Traders data is available. I've written the CFTC to find out what's going on and will try again later or over the weekend. Apologies for the delay in my post. Hope you fared well this week.
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Alex Roslin
at
3:41 PM
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Short Gold No More
I got stopped out of my short gold bullion position this morning. Seeing as how the market moved against historic patterns, this kind of development can sometimes suggest an unusually strong trend. I might look at opportunities to go long with a discretionary trade. Mind you, gold stocks and silver aren't making new highs like bullion is. That kind of divergence is not a good sign for the sector. Hope you're doing well this week.
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Alex Roslin
at
12:16 PM
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Sunday, November 8, 2009
Data Bullish for Banks, Bearish for 30-Year Bond
What a wacky week! Sorry about my delayed post about my trading signals from Friday's Commitments of Traders report. I've just updated my latest signals table based on the COT data. Two new signals for this coming week's open of trading: bullish for the U.S. BKX Bank Index and bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning the yield would rise).
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Alex Roslin
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5:43 PM
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Friday, October 30, 2009
Sell! Sell! Sell! Everything Must Go
Yikes! Not a good week. Not at all. At least not if you're a bull. And what say the Commitments of Traders numbers? Holy guacamole. Not good either. Check out the mess of red on my latest signals table, which I've just updated. Here's the lowdown:
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Alex Roslin
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6:04 PM
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tom DeMark Indicators 101
Faithful readers have seen me mentioning analyst Tom DeMark and his interesting trading indicators. If you've ever wondered about his system but weren't sure how it works, check out this story I did in the November 2009 issue of Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine. I first read about DeMark on trader and money manager Steven Vita's excellent AlchemyOfTrading.com site. (Also see his free blog here.) Thanks, Stephen! I use some of DeMark's indicators - particularly his TDST support and resistance lines - extensively in my discretionary trading. Hope you're faring well this week, and see you back here Friday with a Commitments of Traders update.
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Alex Roslin
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8:35 PM
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Friday, October 23, 2009
Data Depressing for Bulls, Nikkei Single Bright Spot
What a crappy week if you were a bull. Next week could be all-important for whether the rally's long-anticipated swan dive begins. Or will all the perma-bears out there end up out of luck? On balance, I have to say things don't look good, according to this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data - with one exception: the Nikkei, which just got a bullish signal for Monday's open. I've just updated my latest signals table for the reading pleasure of any masochists out there. You'll recall that the COT reports are the free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that detail trillions in derivatives positions in 100-plus major markets. Here are those grim highlights:
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Alex Roslin
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5:13 PM
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Friday, October 16, 2009
Bad News for Banks, Stocks and Energy
Woah, rough day and a rough close today. But the market's long-awaited plunge of the cliff hasn't happened. Folks seem to be really, finally starting to believe in this rally in a big way. Oh-oh.
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Alex Roslin
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5:27 PM
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Friday, October 9, 2009
Data Supports Rally Near-Term, But Dark Clouds Gather
As markets try to break out to new highs, this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report is giving some interesting insights, as usual. Some bullish tidings, but some not so bullish. Check my just-updated latest signals table for the grim details. Witness all that red. Not good. But not all bad either.
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Alex Roslin
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9:26 PM
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