Monday 30 May 2011

Gold to Cash, Gas Bearish

Two new signals based on the latest data from the Commitments of Traders reports issued by the CFTC. My trading setup for gold goes from bullish to cash on Monday's open of trading, and my setup for natural gas goes from cash to bearish on today's open as well. See my latest signals table for more details on these and my other setups. Good luck this week!

Friday 20 May 2011

Is it a Top? Trader Data not Happy

Markets sure feel toppy these days - especially now that the "best six months" seasonally favourable period for most major stock indexes is now over. This afternoon's Commitments of Traders report suggests the weakness could continue. My trading setup for the S&P 500 remains bearish, and trader positioning isn't giving any hopeful signs for bulls. See my newly updated latest signals table for details based on today's COT release. Have a good weekend, and to Canadian readers - a good long weekend. TGIF! Good luck next week.

Friday 13 May 2011

Bank Signal Goes from Bullish to Cash

Mostly quiet this week in Commitments of Traders land. This afternoon's COT release from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission resulted in one new signal in my COTs Timer trading strategy based on this weekly derivatives data: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index. Here's a little round-up of some of the action. For more details, see my latest signals table.

- U.S. financials: My trading setup for the benchmark BKX index goes from bullish to cash on Monday's open of trading. That's because the large speculators, whom I trade alongside in this setup, have suddenly reduced their net futures and options position as a percentage of the total open interest. The other two components of the setup remain in bullish mode, so the overall setup goes to cash. It had been bullish for three weeks.

- S&P 500: The "smart money" commercial hedger crowd is still heavily bearish, as they've been for the past six weeks. Meanwhile, the wrong-way small traders remain just as heavily bullish - as they've been for the last seven weeks. It all adds up to a bearish signal for my S&P 500 trading setup, which has been short since the week of May 2. Both sides are moderating their relative extremes of positioning, but just barely. No sign of any impending change of signal for some time.

Have a good weekend, and good luck next week!

Sunday 8 May 2011

Bullish on Gold, Bearish on Bond

Two new signals based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC: bullish for gold taking effect on Monday's open of trading and bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond, also to take effect Monday. See my just-updated latest signals table for all the gory details based on Friday's COT report. All other signals remain the same: bearish for the S&P 500, bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and the Nikkei and cash for crude oil and natural gas. Good luck this week!

Monday 2 May 2011

S&P 500 Bearish

A few new signals taking effect on this morning's open: bearish for the S&P 500 and cash for natural gas and the 30-year Treasury bond. I updated my latest signals table Friday based on that day's Commitments of Traders report, but didn't have a chance to write a post. Apologies! See my table for more details on the latest COT data. Good luck this week.