Friday 23 December 2011

S&P 500 and Copper Bearish - And a Great Big Ho Ho Ho!

I take it back. We got a beautiful bunch of fluffy snow this week to cover everything in a great big layer of snow just in time for Christmas. The wood stove is fired up, and we're as excited as can be for Santa up here in Quebec's Eastern Townships.

If only the news was so good coming out of the grinch-like trader positioning reflected in this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As you'll see from my newly updated latest signals table, derivatives positioning has turned pretty sour pretty much across the board. Setups turning bearish on next week's open of trading: S&P 500 and copper. Crude oil, the Nikkei and natural gas were already bearish. The rest of my setups are in cash. None are bullish at this point.

But try not to think about that too much this holiday weekend! Happy holidays to all.

Friday 16 December 2011

Out of Gold, Bearish for Gas and Nikkei

Three signals take effect on next Monday's open of trading, coming out of my trading setups based on the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- Gold goes from bullish to cash. This is based on excessive bullishness in the large speculator total open interest starting several weeks ago. We could be in cash (or potentially bearish) for awhile.

- Natural gas goes from bullish to bearish. This signal will last two weeks.

- Nikkei goes from bullish to bearish. This signal will last two weeks too.

In other news, the S&P 500 data is still flipping around like a fish on the dock. The latest COT data issued this afternoon shows that the wrong-way small trader crowd has reduced its net positioning to the point that it's actually bullish. So that puts the overall setup, which goes to bearish on Dec. 26, back into cash on Jan. 9.

Hope you have a good weekend, and good luck next week! It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas - except where's all the snow?! This time last year, we'd had weeks and weeks of non-stop snow up here in Quebec ski country. This year, we've just had lots of rain. I'm dreaming of a muddy Christmas. Thanks for nothing, global warming!

Saturday 10 December 2011

Cash for SPX, Bearish for Bond

Short post this week - apologies! My signals table is now updated based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data. Signals for Monday's open: cash for the S&P 500 and bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond. Some of my other setups also have new signals for later in the month. See the signals table for all the details on how trader positioning looks right now. Hope you have a good weekend, and good luck next week.

Friday 2 December 2011

Late December Awash in Bearish Red

I somehow missed doing my promised update after Monday's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report came out. Very sorry! All the latest data based on today's new COT report has now been crunched by my chastized yet keen team here at COTs Timer central, and my latest signals table has been updated.

As it happens, last Monday's data didn't add any other signals than the ones I mentioned in last Saturday's post. 

The new data from today, however, is a different story, as you'll see on my signals table. No new signals to report for next week's open, but after that, watch out. I think the best way to describe the latest COT data is "Yikes." Or perhaps "bahumbug." Santa will not be pleased. Late December is awash in bearish red. But try not to think about that right now! Tis the season to be jolly. Hope you have a great weekend, and good luck this coming week.