Saturday, 29 September 2012

Bearish Nasdaq-100 Signal One of Four New Signals From COT Report

Quite a few new signals taking effect on next week's open of trading based on my trading signals built around the free weekly Commitments of Traders data:

- Nasdaq-100: After a week of cash, NDX goes back to bearish. It was bearish nine weeks previously, losing 9.7%. Hopefully, this time around will be better! Large speculator positioning, which my setup fades, remains highly bullish this past week.

And commercial trader positioning, which my setup trades alongside of, has reversed from last Friday's bullishness back to doom and gloom.

- Nikkei: Fifteen weeks in the bearish column are over for this setup for at least a week and possibly more. That depends in part on the commercial total open interest, which got suddenly quite bullish two weeks ago, then reversed a got a heck of a lot more bearish again.

The small trader open interest remains steadfastly bearish, but who knows what next week will bring!

- Natural gas: Another winning signal (knock on wood! - a lot can happen before the open of trading) from my favourite trading setup. This one was bullish for just a week and goes to cash on Monday's open. Trader positioning already looks set in a bearish direction, and we could see this setup go short in two weeks' time if traders keep doing what they're doing right now.

- Copper: This setup is back to bearish after three weeks in cash.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I follow using the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's COT data. Good luck next week.

Friday, 21 September 2012

Natural Gas Bullish Next Week, Nasdaq-100 to Cash

Natural gas goes bullish on next week's open of trading, according to my trading signal based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data.

It'll be a short-lived signal, lasting just a single week. But gas moves fast, so it could still move far even in one week.

And my Nasdaq-100 signal goes from bearish to cash on next week's open.

These and my other setups are now updated on my latest signals table, showing trader positioning in a bunch of markets based on the COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commish.

Good luck next week! And be sure to share this post with others and to click the social sharing buttons below.

Saturday, 15 September 2012

Quiet Week in COT Data

No signals take effect on this week's open of trading in my trading system based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports. (Note, however, my addendum to my post last week about my copper signal: I only realized while doing this week's data update that copper went to cash on last week's open.)

My existing signals remain the same: bearish for the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Nikkei and silver; bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond and cash for everything else (BKX U.S. Bank Index, natural gas, gold, copper and crude oil).

Friday, 7 September 2012

Commitments Data Puts Gold, BKX in Cash

Two signals take effect on Monday's open of trading in my trading strategy based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports:

- My bullish gold signal goes to cash.

- My bearish signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes to cash too.

The gold signal did pretty well - up 25.2% in five weeks using a 300% leveraged ETF as of Friday's close. But I gave some of that back with that wrong-way BKX trade, which lost 9.8% in a holiday-shortened week of trading, also using a 300% leveraged fund.

(I'm using the leveraged funds not because I'm especially risk-loving, but just because I had funds tied up in other trades and wanted to get as close as I could to my maximum portfolio allocation for those two setups.)

Other signals remain the same this coming week. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in all the markets I'm trading using the nifty free COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which details trillions of dollars in futures and options bets in 150-plus markets.

Have a good weekend, and good luck next week.

CORRECTION (Sept. 15, 2012): I just noticed that my copper signal also went to cash on last week's open. I hadn't noticed and kept my position a week longer than I should have. Apologies for neglecting to note this in my post last week.

Monday, 3 September 2012

Silver, Banks Bearish Based on CFTC Data

Add silver and the BKX U.S. Bank Index go my growing list of setups in the bearish column based on the weekly Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC. The latest COT data gave those two setups a bearish signal for this week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I follow.

Now I'm heading back to the Brome County Fair and more fun (including blooming onions - yum!) Hope you have a good long weekend too, and good luck this coming week.