Tuesday, 30 April 2013

CFTC Data Bearish for Bond

A couple of signals worth noting based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC:

- Bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield), taking effect on this week's open. That's because of excessively bullish positioning in bond futures and options by the commercial hedgers and small traders - both of whom I fade.

- Cash for natural gas next week. My signal has been bullish since March 25 and will remain so this week. It goes to cash on next week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the free weekly COT reports of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry again for the delayed post this week. I was travelling over the weekend from Costa Rica, but I'm back home now just in time for some beautiful Canadian spring weather. Good luck this week.

Saturday, 20 April 2013

Quiet Week in COT Land

Quiet week in Commitments of Traders land this week, according to the latest weekly report from the CFTC.

No new signals to report taking effect this week! All existing signals are therefore still in effect. See my latest signals table for details.

Travel advisory: I'll be on the road next weekend returning to Quebec after a beautiful four months in Montezuma, Costa Rica.

Gracias, Montezuma! Pura vida.
We'll miss our friends (human, monkey and other), and thanks for another trip full of nice memories. Pura vida.

I hope to update this blog based on the data from next week's COT report shortly after our return the week of April 29. Sorry for the delay.

I'll take a chance and hold my existing positions until I'm able to do the update.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 14 April 2013

Crude Oil to Cash

Not much change in trader positioning this week, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

A single new signal takes effect on this week's open of trading: cash for my crude oil signal.

Otherwise, my signals remain the same (as you can see on my latest signals table):

- bullish for the S&P 500
- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for the Nasdaq-100
- bullish for natural gas
- bullish for the Nikkei
- bullish for gold
- bullish for silver
- cash for copper
- cash for the 30-year Treasury bond

Good luck this week!

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Bullish Move for Gold, Crude Oil in CFTC's COT Data

Two new signals took effect this week based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest weekly Commitments of Traders data dump:

- bullish for crude oil
- bullish for gold

The crude signal will remain bullish just for one week, but gold could last a while. No way to know week to week, but the trader positioning is highly supportive of a bullish gold position this week - at least according to my interpretation of price moves based on historic data.

That doesn't mean the signal will be right - or that gold will move up this week. As you'll see from my backtesting results table (scroll down for the link), all of my setups are far from being 100-percent correct, even in the idealized world of backtesting. It's all about probabilities.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the CFTC's free COT data.

Sorry again for my delayed post this time around. I was visiting beautiful Bocas del Toro in Panama - a gorgeous archipelago of Caribbean islands with friendly people, a funky little town and lots of nice corrals and reefs to swim around. Highly recommended.

Good luck this week.

Tuesday, 2 April 2013

Delay for Next COT Update

Bocas: Wow!
I'll need to delay my next Commitments of Traders update because I'll be making a little trip to Bocas del Toro, in Panama. It's supposed to be beautiful.

I'll be back early next week with my take on the latest COT data.

Sorry for the delay.

I'll take a chance and hold existing positions until I do my next update, which you can look out for next Tuesday or Wednesday.