Sunday 27 April 2014

Cash for Crude, Natural Gas and Copper

Three setups go to cash on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

They are natural gas, crude oil and copper.

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning for these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Thursday 24 April 2014

Bullish This Week for Banks and Silver, Bearish for Crude

Apologies for missing my usual weekly post early this week. Easter festivities got in the way.

I did, however, update my latest signals table with last week's data from the Commitments of Traders report.

Signals that took effect this week: bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and silver, bearish for crude oil. Other signals remained the same.

Tune back in after Friday's COT report for an updated signals table and a (more timely!) post here.

Sunday 13 April 2014

S&P 500 Bearish Signal This Week

Trader positioning continued to get more bearish across most equities and commodities, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report released Friday.

"Smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options have steadily reduced their net position as a portion of total open interest for six weeks.

They now stand at 1.39 standard deviations below my moving average.

The decline in their positioning started the week mass protests ousted Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych and Kremlin responded with an armed takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

My S&P 500 signal goes bearish on the open of trading this coming week.

Also going bearish this week is copper.

My latest signals table now shows a wall of red bearish signals for six of my 10 trading setups based on the free weekly COT reports.

Three signals are in cash, and only the Nasdaq-100 is bullish.

Good luck this week.

Saturday 5 April 2014

Commercial Hedgers Keep Up Heavily Bearish S&P 500 Stance

Was yesterday's market bloodbath a one-off -- or the start of something more serious?

Could be more of the latter, if trader positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is anything to go by.

As discussed in previous posts, the upward trend of positioning by "smart money" commercial hedgers that started in December is over. 

(Why "smart money"? That's because the S&P 500 commercial traders tend to get heavily bullish in their positioning when markets are about to go up and vice versa.)

That uptrend coincided with a nice little rally.

Friday's COT data shows the commercials at 1.32 standard deviations below my moving average in their net position as a percentage of total open interest. 

Gold Joins Silver in Bearish Column

The downturn in trader positioning has pushed my S&P 500 signal to bearish on the open of trading the week of April 14. 

See my latest signals table for more details.

As usual, though, the news from the COT data is somewhat mixed. My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes bullish for Monday's open of trading. And my signal for the Nasdaq-100 continues to be bullish.

In commodities, my signal for gold goes bearish on Monday's open, too -- joining my already bearish silver signal.

Natural gas also remains bearish.

Good luck this week.