Sunday, 25 August 2013

Uncertainty Prevails in Trader Positioning: COT Data

And I thought last week's slew of bearish signals was a lot to chew on. The latest Commitments of Traders data makes last week look like small potatoes.

Traders are flying all over the place with contradictory positioning in various markets, seemingly unsure what to do. There's just a lot of uncertainty out there.

Last week's overwhelmingly bearish posturing has evolved into something more like just-get-me-off-the-bus.

It adds up to a bunch of cash signals (my latest signals table has all the details) for the markets I'm trading using the free weekly Commitments of Traders data.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes from bullish to bearish this coming week. And my Nikkei signal remains bearish.

But these markets move to cash: Nasdaq-100, BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond.

Even my bullish natural gas signal will go to cash in a week's time - i.e. on the open the week of Sept. 2.

Good luck in these trying times!

Saturday, 17 August 2013

Bearish Move Accelerates in COT Data

Woah - the bearish move is accelerating in trader positioning, according to the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data.

A wash of red ink covers my latest signals table.

Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading:

- cash for natural gas (which then goes bullish the following week)

- bearish for the Nikkei, copper and crude oil

Also, my S&P 500 signal goes bearish in a week's time (on the open the week of August 26).

Keep your head down!

Sunday, 11 August 2013

S&P 500 To Go Bearish Aug. 26; Natural Gas To Go To Cash Aug. 19

Looks like the silly season is upon us a little early this year. I'm talking about the often-wacky September-October stretch, which sometimes sees hiccups, crashes and other assorted market mayhem.

To wit, the latest Commitments of Traders report has turned my latest signals table somewhat upside down, with a mess of new signals:

- S&P 500: Happily bullish since March 18, the "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally given up the ghost. Their heavily bearish net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest puts my signal into the bearish column with a two-week delay (i.e. on the open the week of Aug. 26).

- Natural gas: My su-weet signal for natural gas stays bearish one more week - now that one's been a cu-raaaazy ride - then I'm back in cash.

- Gold and silver: These two dogs are finally going from bullish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 4 August 2013

Confusing Data For Equities in Latest COT Data

Odd mixed signals in the latest weekly Commitments of Traders report.

The S&P 500 commercial hedgers keep getting more heavily bearish in their futures and options positioning, moving to just a hair away from reversing my bullish signal.

Meanwhile, traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract got more bullish and sent my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index from cash to bullish on the coming week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for all the gory details of the latest COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My bearish signal for the Nikkei goes to cash on this week's open.

And yet, my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes bullish on the weekly open - which should be a bearish portent for equities.

Amid all this, my natural gas signal remains faithfully bearish one more week.

It's fascinating data - but trying to make sense of the COT reports can sometimes make your head hurt. Good luck this week!