Monday, 28 May 2012

Update Done

Just finished updating my latest signals table based on Friday's Commitments of Traders results. Sorry for the delay in the update. I was interrupted part-way through my update before the open this morning when Google Docs crashed. Good luck this week!

Banks to Cash, Bond Bearish

Two new signals take effect this morning in my COTs Timer trading strategy: cash for my trading setup for BKX U.S. Bank Index (which was bearish for a single week last week) and bearish for my the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield).

I was in the middle of updating these and my other signals on my latest signals table with the latest Commitments of Traders data, but it looks like Google Docs decided to crash while I was only half-way done. Thanks a lot, Google!

I'll finish updating the table after Google Docs comes back online. Apologies. Good luck this week.

Friday, 18 May 2012

Banks Bearish, Crude to Cash

Two new trading signals take effect on next week's open of trading: bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (this signal will last only one week) and cash for crude oil. The bearish signal for my new crude oil trading setup had been doing nicely, and I was just wondering how long the good times can last.

That's not the case for some of my other current signals, but what interests me more is how the trade does when the signal ends. Of course, I don't expect every trade to be profitable either. Read more on my thinking about losing trades on my FAQs page.

See details on trader positioning in the two above markets and the other markets I follow on my newly updated latest signals table.

The signals are based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission - God bless 'em. Hope you did well this past week, and have a good weekend.

Wednesday, 16 May 2012

New Nasdaq-100 Signal Flips to Bullish

Sorry for my late post this week! I must have got caught up in Mother's Day and am still sleeping off the festivities.

I did manage to update my latest signals table last Saturday, so if you checked there you would have seen what my signals are doing based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from the CFTC. To wit:

- My new Nasdaq-100 trading setup went bullish on this week's open of trading. That's based on super-bullish positioning by the "smart money" commercial hedgers and extremely bearish positioning by the wrong-way large speculators, whom I fade.

- Other signals remain the same: bullish for SPX, gold, silver and the Nikkei; bearish for crude oil, natural gas; and cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Indexcopper and the 30-year Treasury bond. Good luck the rest of this week, and see you back here after this Friday's COT update.

Wednesday, 9 May 2012

New Silver Setup Went Up 90-Fold - Currently Bullish

Silver went up more than six-fold between 1995 and mid-2011. Meanwhile, my new trading setup for silver went up over 90-fold in backtesting.

Like the other setups in my COTs Timer trading strategy, my signals for silver are based on the Commitments of Traders reports - the free weekly data on trader positioning issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My silver setup is currently in its fourth week of being bullish. It is based on trading alongside the "smart money" commercial hedgers in silver futures and options and trading in the opposite direction as the wrong-way small traders, who tend to be wrongly positioned at key market turns. The setup is in cash when the two groups of traders don't give the same signal.

See my newly updated latest signals table and backtesting results page for more details on this setup and what the silver COT data is saying these days.

I test the COT data to find levels of trader positioning that were historically followed by price moves. I use a variety of statistical techniques to identify signals that not only gave good profits, but also that did so reliably. In fact, the reliability of the signals is far more important to me than the levels of profits. See my FAQs page for more on my backtesting process.

I should soon add a setup for the Euro/USD cross.

Good luck the rest of this week, and see you back here after Friday's COT release for another weekly update.

Sunday, 6 May 2012

NDX to Cash, Nikkei Bullish, Natural Gas Bearish

Exciting times here at COTs Timer world headquarters, where we bring you the latest in developments in the beautiful and talented world of the Commitments of Traders reports. Well actually, we mostly just report on how the CFTC's weekly data on trader positioning looks week to week - and what signals we get for the markets we cover.

And on that note, without further ado, here are the signals I've just had the pleasure of noting on my newly updated latest signals table. First, here are the signals taking effect on this coming week's open of trading:

Nasdaq-100 Index: goes to cash after one week bearish
- Nikkei: goes to bullish after two weeks in cash
- natural gas: goes to bearish after a week bullish

And here are my other, existing signals for my COTs Timer trading strategy:

- S&P 500: bullish
- BKX U.S. Bank Index: cash
- gold: bullish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash
- copper: cash
- crude oil: bearish

See details on trader positioning in all of these markets and other trading information for my setups on my latest signals table. Also as noted in this post last week, I've updated my backtesting results table (scroll down for the link) to include the results from all of my newly updated setups.

Good luck this week.

Wednesday, 2 May 2012

Nasdaq Signals Gained 1,800%, While Market Fell 70%

My new trading setup for the Nasdaq-100 Index gained 1,800 percent since 1999, while the index itself lost 70 percent, according to my backtesting results using detrended price data. (Scroll down to the "Backtesting Results Table.")

And my new setup for the Nikkei went up 680 percent, while Japan's stock index fell 40 percent.

These are some of the new results I've posted for four new trading setups that give me signals based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports. These reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and reveal trillions of dollars of trader positioning in 150-odd markets - everything from gold to crude oil, the Canadian dollar and S&P 500 futures and options.

I've been developing my COTs Timer trading strategy based on the COT data for several years and using myself as a guinea pig to trade my signals in real time since 2007. I've just gone through a major updating process and have been improving my backtesting process based on my experiences.

I've posted the backtesting results for the Nasdaq-100 (which are based on the Nasdaq-100 mini COT data), the Nikkei, the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index (which are based on the three-month Eurodollar contract - the liquidity measure, not the currency) and the 30-year Treasury bond.

I've also just updated my latest signals table to include signals and data from all of these new setups. See my FAQs page for more details on my backtesting process.

Thanks for your suggestions for new markets to test using the COT data. I plan to work on silver and the Euro/USD cross next.

Your comments and suggestions are welcome. I'll also post a new sample spreadsheet for my S&P 500 setup soon on my DIY page. Thanks for your patience, support and kind words through this process.

Good luck the rest of the week, and see you back here after Friday's COT release.