Saturday, 23 June 2012

Cash Signals Point to Trader Uncertainty

The market's uncertainty is clear in the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

Trader positioning in Friday's COT report puts three of my signals into cash on next week's open of trading: the Nasdaq-100 and crude oil (both of which had been bullish) and the 30-year Treasury bond (which had been bearish).

Meanwhile, my S&P 500, BKX U.S. Bank Index, gold and silver setups remain bullish for now.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I follow using the free weekly COT reports.

Have a good weekend, and to Quebec readers: Joyeuse St-Jean!

Sunday, 17 June 2012

Crude Bullish Signal Bodes Well for Equity Rebound

My trading setup for crude oil goes bullish on this coming week's open of trading after four weeks in cash. Meanwhile, my signal for the Nikkei goes from bullish to cash on the coming weekly open.

Those signals and other data are now up on my latest signals table, which reports on trader positioning in 10 markets I trade using the weekly Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Overall, the CFTC data appears to be balance bullish this week, signalling favourable odds of a market bounce off the recent weakness. The crude signal is bullish overall for the equity market, and three of my four equity signals are bullish.

The Nikkei, which goes to cash this week, isn't highly correlated with North American equities, so its signal this week isn't necessarily a bearish sign either.

But who knows! The data is often wrong, so do your own homework.

Good luck this week, and Happy Father's Day to all you dads and granddads and great-granddads, etc. My wife and daughters took me to Burlington, VT, and then dinner at the amazing Crossing restaurant in Richford (famous for their peanut butter pie and steak). Wow.


So good.

Thanks, girls! I love you.

Sunday, 10 June 2012

Banks Going Bullish, Equities Turn Corner?

Only one signal takes effect on this coming week's open of trading in my COTs Timer trading strategy based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports: bullish for my trading setup for the benchmark BKX U.S Bank Index.

The signal comes as a result of a decline in bearish derivatives positioning by the large speculators in the three-month Eurodollar contract (an important measure of liquidity).

All my other equity signals have been bullish for at least several weeks, so this might mean the corner has been turned on the recent market selloff. But who rightly knows! My signals based on the free COT report data are certainly known to be wrong at times.

See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on positioning in the Eurodollars and other markets I'm following with my strategy. Good luck this coming week.

Friday, 1 June 2012

Natural Gas Short Ends Crazy Ride in Black, Going to Cash

Mostly quiet in trader positioning as reported in this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report.

What's the COT report? you ask.

Why, it's the free weekly data on futures and options positions in major markets released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

One signal takes effect on next week's open of trading: my trading setup for natural gas goes to cash after being short four weeks. That trade was a real roller coaster - deeply under water at first, then back into the black this past week. Natural gas is craaaazy! Not for the faint of heart, friends.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in gas and other markets I'm covering using the COT data. Have a good weekend, and good luck next week.