Monday, 31 December 2012

Seven New Signals This Week From COT Data

Whole bunch of new signals take effect this week based on the latest trader positioning data as disclosed in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

See my latest signals table for all the details. It's been a long time since I've seen so many new signals take effect at once. Enjoy!

Hope you're having a good holiday, and best wishes for 2013!

Friday, 21 December 2012

Bevy of New Signals From Commitments Report

New trading signals for the S&P 500crude oilsilver and the 30-year Treasury bond based on the latest Commitments of Traders report issued this afternoon. See my latest signals table for the update.

Sorry for the abbreviated post. I'm on the road travelling to sunny Costa Rica!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Saturday, 15 December 2012

Going Short Natural Gas Thanks to COT Data

One signal takes effect on next week's open of trading based on the weekly Commitments of Traders data: bearish for my trading setup for natural gas.

This comes after large speculators and small traders got significantly bearish in their total open interest in natural gas futures and options in recent weeks.

The signal will last at most two weeks, however, because small traders got substantially more bullish in the latest COT report issued Friday.

See my latest signals table to inspect the detailed data on the trader positioning in this and the other markets I follow using my COTs Timer trading strategy, which is generally bullish on equities these days but neutral-to-bearish on commodities and the 30-year bond. Good luck next week.

Friday, 7 December 2012

S&P 500, Banks Bullish Next Week, Not So Copper

The bullish bent of trader positioning continues for a fourth consecutive week in the Commitments of Traders reports.

I've got two trading signals taking effect on next week's open of trading based on the weekly COT data:

- bullish for the S&P 500 (after being bearish since Aug. 20)
- bullish for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index, a basket of leading financials

See my latest signals table for more details.

There's some countervailing news, however, in the copper market. The "smart money" commercial hedgers, whom I trade alongside in my copper setup, have suddenly gotten a lot more pessimistic in their net futures and options positioning, pushing my signal to bearish on next week's open.

Good luck next week.

Sunday, 2 December 2012

Sneaky COT Data Looks Maybe, Possibly Bullish... But Who Knows!

The drumbeat of bullish news continues in the latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday.

My signal for the Nikkei goes to bullish on the coming week's open of trading. Also, my trading setup for the 30-year Treasury bond goes bearish (meaning yields would go up, also typically a bullish sign).

As reported last week, my S&P 500 signal, which has been bearish since August 20, goes bullish on the open of trading in a week's time on Dec. 10. That's due to the more optimistic recent net positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options, as you can see on my latest signals table.

But of course, we never know what will happen! All this trader positioning could be completely wrong for all I know. It's happened in the past often enough. In fact, I think making overly bold forecasts might be a good way to jinx myself and help ensure my positions don't work.

So I'll go ahead right now and say there's an excellent chance the COT data is just tricking me and that a horrible holiday season for the markets could very well await, no doubt due to some new craziness in D.C. or Europe.

Knock on wood.