Friday, 30 March 2007


My system has given a buy signal for the NASDAQ after large speculators in today's COTs numbers reached a historically extreme level of bearishness in NASDAQ futures and options.

I will execute the buy trade after a one-week delay (i.e. on the open on Monday, April 9). Historically, delaying the trade by one week has resulted in the most profitable trades, according to my trading system for the NASDAQ.

For more details on the NASDAQ trade, see my upcoming story in the May issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities.

The largest drawdown historically for this trade was 9 percent since the data started in 1995.

All other signals remain the same. (See below.)


Anonymous said...


Any chance you could summarize your article on this blog for those of us who are not subscribers to TASC?



Alex Roslin said...

Hi Jim,

Thanks very much for your interest. Yes, I certainly intend to. My timing system is based on my discovery that when some groups of traders hit certain extremes of bullishness or bearishness, this has in the past created potentially market-beating trade opportunities. The trick is to figure out how to measure those extremes. I found a way to do so using Microsoft Excel and technical analysis (i.e. combinations of moving averages and standard deviations).

Unfortunately, I'm traveling until mid-April and won't have a chance to post more complete until then. I'm very sorry! In the meanwhile, you may be able to find TASC in magazine stores.

Best regards,

fred said...

Hi, you have an interesting idea using the COTS. I was wondering if your excel file can be easily automated using Bloomberg Excel functions (not sure if you are using that). Regards-Fred.

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Fred,

Thanks for your comment. I use Microsoft Excel, but I believe Bloomberg Excel offers the same functions. If so, it would work just fine.