Friday, 16 November 2007

COTs Call for Lower Rates, Still Love XGD, But Mixed on Equities

Lots of strident world-coming-to-an-end talk out there as the markets melted down and up and back down this week. Meanwhile, we're up to our arses in white fluffy snow up here in the Eastern Townships of Quebec. Some of you out there might think that's frightening, but what I see when I look out the window is nature's purest beauty. A couple of deer passed outside earlier to complete the picture.

Right, so what of those amazing little Commitments of Traders reports? What wisdom did they impart this afternoon? Overall picture: looks like the bull is still quite alive, though the current weakness may continue. On the bullish side of the ledger: A renewed bullish signal for my Russell 2000 setup. Plus: lots of bullishness from the Treasuries data, suggesting further interest rate declines to come. Hear that, Bernanke? Also very interesting: a renewed bullish signal for my XGD Canadian Gold iUnits setup. Nice.

But a couple of surprising developments from my two composite indexes for equities and agriculture. My COTs U.S. Composite Equity Index, for one, remains on a bullish signal, but it has dropped to a barely positive 0.04 from last week's 0.19. Oh-oh. Check "Latest Signals" on the right for the complete list of renewed signals. And stop in early next week for more highlights from today's COTs.

Subscription service: Lots of people have asked whether I was going to start a paid newsletter. I hadn't really planned to do so when I created this site, but recently I've been thinking about the future of COTs Timer and am contemplating putting many of the signals in a paid subscriber-only section. I still intend to keep a large number of the setups here for free because that's just the kind of guy I am and I believe in spreading the word about this valuable government data. But I'm not a charitable institution, so continuing to offer all the data for free just doesn't make sense any more. My apologies. I'll give more details soon. The change should come early next year. Your support and input have been very appreciated and educational. Hope you did okay this week and best wishes for a relaxing weekend.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Concerning the subscription fee... what a pity... :-(((

Almost the end for free Cots Timer... nothing remains free in this world. That has been a good experience, but too short.

Anyway, good luck Alex for the paying version...

Alex Roslin said...

Thanks for your kind words and support. But I want to clarify that it's not "the end for free COTs Timer." This site and almost all the information and resources will remain available for free. I'm just planning to remove a number of the signals for certain setups to a paid-only page. I'll also give paid subscribers more analysis and more detailed data than will be available for free. Rest assured, though: There'll be lots still here for free.

As I've said, I believe strongly in spreading the word about this valuable free government data and helping to improve market transparency.

Best regards,
Alex

Iluha said...

what information? i have a hard time understanding your table nor your signals. they are very confusing in reference to the three groups that are either short, long etc...

My Favorite Life said...

I won't mind paying for the information provided and the work necessary to create it. It certainly is of value. I would appreciate knowing when signals were given for each index so I could follow the history of the COT program as well as compare it to my own signals. I would suggest beta testing the format so the data is presented in a useful manner to everyone.

Congratulations on some fine work Alex.

Fred said...

Hi Alex
Do you have any set-up for EUR or the AUD? Thanks.

dscaron said...

There is a compromise to your paid site; for people like me who have been reading your site for over a year now, a freebie; to help spread the word! Aswell, you could make more money from the advertising you should be charging a bundle for! In any case I for one will be sorry to see you leave the realm of freedomism (is that a word?). Thanks for what you've done 1

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Iluha,

Thanks for your message. Sorry that you're confused. Have you read the explanatory notes for that table and the other explanatory pages on this site (i.e., "How It Works" and "Intro to COTs")? If not, those should help clear things up. If you're still confused, please let me know exactly what you don't understand so I can clarify it.

One possible source of your confusion: I am only following one group of traders - the one that produced the best results in backtesting and tests of statistical robustness - in each market. Thus, I'm ignoring the other two groups of traders in most cases. (The exceptions are two of my setups, in which I combine the best setups to produce a signal only when both agree.)

Regards,
Alex

Alex Roslin said...

Thanks for your support and suggestion, My Favourite Life. I will roll out a beta version for free for a while to test it out, give you a sneak peak and get your feedback.

To see when the current signal was given in each setup, please check the first table linked on the "Latest Signals" page and take a look at the column titled "Existing Signal and Date of COTs Report for Signal."

Regards,
Alex

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Fred,

I haven't studied the Euro yet because it's only been around since 1999, which may reduce the statistical validity of any setups that emerge. I still plan to do the analysis soon and include it, as well as the Australian dollar and Swissie.

Regards,
Alex

avocade said...

I concur with the call for a Euro setup.

Alex Roslin said...

Okay, guys. I'll see what I can come up with. Glad to see the interest.

Regards,
Alex