Friday, 8 February 2008

COTs Looking Up for Bulls, Going Long NASDAQ-100

My trading setup for the NASDAQ-100 index has flipped to bullish after a seven-week bearish stint during the recent market nuttiness. The new signal comes from today's Commitments of Traders report issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Check my Latest Signals page for all the calls from my trading setups based on this fascinating, free government data. I should point out this new NDX signal is for a newly revised setup for this market, which has a greater statistical confidence level than my previous one. It works with no trade delay, meaning I'll be selling my existing QID ProShares UltraShort position and going long for Monday's open.

In other news, my S&P 500 setup also flipped to bullish with the Jan. 15 COTs report. This setup uses a three-week trade delay, which means execution again Monday. So I'll be selling my SDS ProShares UltraShort position and going long this index, too. And readers may recall my Russell 2000 setup also flipped to bullish with the Dec. 24 COTs report, which, with the seven-week trade delay for that setup, means I'll be going long RUT on the open Feb. 18. So a bevy of long signals, suggesting we're turning the corner on the recent market hellishness.

As well, my OIH Oil Services Holders and XEG iShares Canadian Energy Fund setups both also flipped to bullish, for execution Feb. 18.

At the same time, my COTs U.S. Composite Equity Index has buoyed significantly, rising to -0.18 from last week's -0.99 (numbers revised based on my new NDX setup) and putting an end to 10 weeks of straight bearish signals for this index. Are things finally looking up for the bulls? Hope so because that's what my money's on!


2dogs said...

nice call on silver[joker] tou got the cajonies to show this??

Anonymous said...

Alex what about this logical Dan Norcini commentary just posted that appears to contradict your COT info on silver:
“Notice that the commercial short category sharply reduced the number of outright short positions they have been carrying (-9,297). This occurred from Tuesday of last week through Tuesday of this week. Over that time frame, the price of silver rallied $1.22. If you look at the chart very carefully, you will observe that this is the first time this has occurred in which the funds HAVE NOT been reducing their net long position. In other words, this appears to be the beginnings of a commercial signal failure. Normally the commercial perma-shorts in silver have used fund long liquidation to cover their shorts as the market moved lower. Not this time - they are buying on the way up!”

Alex Roslin said...

Hi - See my response here: