Friday, 26 September 2008

Trader Positioning Not So Pretty

I was expecting Armageddon this morning after all the crash talk if the bailout package got nixed. In fact, markets opened way better than I thought they would and are now bouncing. Does that mean an all-clear? Alas, the trader positioning numbers just out from the Community Futures Trading Commission this afternoon paint a grim picture. See my latest signals table for the nasty details of what my trading setups are saying now. An even worse picture emerges when you look at the raw numbers, more on which early next week. Gotta leave the office early for a trip to Hamilton, Ont., for a benefit of the newly formed Canadian Centre for Investigative Reporting, of which yours truly is v-p. (See the website here and more on the benefit here. Website coming shortly.) Tune back in here early next week for highlights from the latest Commitments of Traders data and my portfolio update.

Housekeeping: As you'll note from my latest signals table, I've temporarily suspended signals updates for my heating oil and platinum trading setups. This is because I'm in the middle of updating both setups in my search for more robust signals, and additional measures I've been checking showed the existing signals aren't as good as I'd like them to be. I'm presently testing combination setups - using signals from two groups of traders - to see if I can find something better. Should have more to report soon. Hope you have a good weekend!

TAGS: COT, Commitments of Traders, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

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