Friday, 7 November 2008

Natural Gas Bullish

I've been watching natural gas closely in the past few days for a possible technical trade while my Black Swan Alert remains in place for one more week for my COTs Timer trading system. Natural gas has tested resistance around the Oct. 20 and Nov. 4 and 5 highs and is forming a possible base after its huge selloff. There's also a nice seasonal sweet spot for Alberta natural gas from July to December, and that could finally kick in late this year. (See more on that here.) Turns out this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data has given my natural gas trading setup a bullish signal for execution on next Monday's open - the only new signal from today's data. (See my updated latest signals table here.) I won't trade the COT signal due to my Black Swan Rule. (See more on that rule here.) But I might consider a short-term trade based on price action if there's a nice breakout. The recent highs also happen to coincide with breakout levels based on the Tom DeMark system, about which you can read more here. Have a relaxing weekend.

TAGS: natural gas, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

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