Monday, 15 June 2009

Gold Gone

I got stopped out of my long gold bullion position earlier this morning. I've updated my portfolio page with the result from that trade (a 12.0-percent loss) and with two other trades I executed on this morning's open - closing out my BKX U.S. Bank Index long position (a 19.7-percent gain) and going long natural gas.
Including the two trades today, I'm averaging an 8.7-percent gain with an average holding period of 3.1 weeks in my closed trades since I started to trade my revised COTs Timer setups last December. There were six gains and two losses in all. Good luck this week.


In Debt We Trust said...

I noticed in the latest data that bullish ED futures took a beating. Note the HUGE change in commercials' positions. They are either shorting ED futures or taking profit. It is a bit unclear which is which, but a lot of it is tied to a renewed (temporary?) bull market in bonds. This includes potential Asian central banker intervention in the Treasuries and dollar market.

In Debt We Trust said...

The contrarian in me is screaming warning signs of a top

Alex Roslin said...

Hi In Debt...,

Do you mean gold in particular? Bullion hasn't broken any trendlines and appears to be forming either an ascending triangle since late last year or to be in a long trading range for the past two years or so.

In fact, bullion made a higher high late last year against the Canadian dollar, Euro and the 10-year Treasury yield. It's only double-topped in U.S. dollar terms, and that's likely because of the flight to safety during the financial crisis.

So far, during the recent sell-off, gold has held above support at the TDST line at $925.20.


In Debt We Trust said...

I do not have a position in gold. I just re-posted as an anectodotal sign of a potential top.

The debate continues to rage between the inflationists/deflationists. It is a zero sum game. Only one side can win.