Friday, 12 June 2009

Pause for Banks, Natural Gas is Bullish

Some interesting new signals based on this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data. I've just updated my latest signals table with the calls from my trading setups based on this interesting weekly data on derivatives positioning in various markets.

New signals: cash for my BKX U.S. Bank Index setup after three weeks bullish; and bullish for my brand new natural gas setup. The latter had been in cash for 10 weeks. It's the setup's first bullish signal since last Sept. 2008, since which time it's been either bearish or in cash.

I'll update my backtesting results table with details from that setup next week. I'll also write a fuller update for all the setups early next week. Hope you fared well this week and best wishes for a great weekend.


maximus said...

"cash for my BKX U.S. Bank Index setup and three weeks bullish"

Does this mean AFTER three weeks bullish or that the BKX is cash for next week FOLLOWED by 3 weeks bullish?

thanks for your outstanding blog -- I featured it on my site as a BEST last week.

If you have a blog roll and would be willing to add my site it would be greatly appreciated....

Thanks again....


In Debt We Trust said...

Do you have any thoughts for window dressing Q2? I'm leaning slightly bearish myself (e.g. long dollar, long bonds, short commodities). What's telling is that many key macro commodity prices remain in contango - including BDI shipping rates.

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Maximus,

Thanks for the kind mention. Oops. That should have said "AFTER three weeks bullish" for BKX.

Best regards,

Alex Roslin said...

Hi In Debt...,

I'm usually pretty agnostic about the longer-term picture, but I guess leaning slightly bullish for now on commodities and equities. Housing stocks still suck, so that's a bad sign. But I've been finding lots of interesting areas to trade short-term. Mind you, the action is so volatile and breakouts fail so often, it's screwed a lot of people up. I don't believe there's really an all-clear until house prices in the U.S. stop falling and banks get cleaned up. Until then, a retest of the lows earlier this year is a big risk.