Monday, 3 August 2009
S&P 500 Setup is Bullish for End of August - Sorry!
An attentive reader just pointed out a mistake on this site regarding my S&P 500 setup. I had the signal line for the small traders set at 0.65 standard deviations below the moving average in some places and 0.6 below in others. In fact, the best backtested results came from setting the signal line at 0.6 - as it is on my sample spreadsheets on my DIY page. I had been testing both signal lines a while back, and I guess I neglected to change that on my own spreadsheet! Duh! So I've corrected this now throughout this site.
The main impact is that last Friday's Commitments of Traders data actually means my S&P 500 setup has, indeed, given a bullish signal. This, due to the increase in bearishness of the wrong-way small traders in their derivatives positioning. With the three-week trade delays in that setup, this means my S&P 500 setup will go bullish on the open of trading Monday, Aug. 24. Sorry about the mix-up - and many thanks to this reader (and to an earlier one as well a couple of weeks ago, who wrote in about the same issue, albeit less fruitfully because, at that time, I couldn't figure out what the problem was). Good luck this week!