Sunday, 20 December 2009

Gold, Natural Gas to Cash, Data Bearish on 30-Yr Bond

A few new signals on my just-updated latest signals table based on the new Commitments of Traders data released Friday. Natural gas and gold go from bearish to cash as of the open of trading on Monday. In the case of gold, this is likely just a one-week hiatus; that setup looks like it will go back to bearish a week from Monday. Meanwhile, my 30-Year Treasury setup goes to bearish for a single week on Monday. Sorry for the abbreviated report. I am back in my office later this coming week and will resume my normal, more fulsome reporting. Until then, check out my latest signals table to see how the data is shaping up. It is fairly self-explanatory: Still far from any all-clear for an equities rally, while crude oil remains firmly in the bearish column. Good luck this week - and Happy Holidays!!


In Debt We Trust said...

My longer term outlook for bonds is bearish for 2010. We've got rising Treasury debt, rising inflation expectations, and the Fed leaning towards an exit strategy. What is your opinion on bear puts for otm 30 yr bond (say September or later?).

Alex Roslin said...

Hi In Debt...,

From a COT perspective, I can't really offer an opinion on that. But from the technical perspective, it makes sense that the bond yield will eventually have to rise. How much is another question. When yields rose in the last bull market, that crushed housing. The debt loads are still quite high, so I don't think yields can rise too much for a long time.