Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Bullish Sea Change in Bank Data
Huge shift in some of the markets last week in the Commitments of Traders data. As you can see from my latest signals table, the data for my trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has moved dramatically to a bullish outlook. The two-week trade delay for one of the signals is the only reason the setup has moved to cash, rather than outright bullish. However, the jumps in the large spec and small trader total open interest are quite bullish as that data is well correlated with next-week BKX prices.
In the S&P 500 data, the small traders, the wrong-way money in this market, are a tiny hair away from getting so bearish that it would push their signal into the bullish column. Like the COT data for U.S. financials, there's some kind of sea change happening in this market, too. The "smart money" commercial hedgers are also gradually shifting positions to more bullish territory, though they're still a little dubious about being overly long.
Also a big shift taking place in the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond COT data, where the small trader total open interest has shot up. I fade this positioning, so this is actually potentially a bearish development for the bond. In gold, the large spec total open interest has made a dramatic move to the upside - again, a bearish turn of events. Meanwhile, in crude oil, the commercial traders, whom I trade alongside, have gotten mega-bearish. That setup has just gone to cash, which makes five of my setups in cash (out of seven). A lot of indecision out there, but it feels like some kind of major shift is partially under way. Good luck the rest of this week!