Friday, 22 April 2011

Boost for Banks

I've just updated my latest signals table based on this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data. Here's a little run-down of where things sit:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: New signal for this setup. It goes from cash to bullish on next week's open of trading.

- S&P 500: This setup is in cash for a week more, then goes to bearish on the open the week of May 2. Looks like it'll remain bearish for a while, too, judging by the increasingly bearish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers and the super-bullish stance of the wrong-way small trader crowd.

- Natural gas: One more week bearish in this setup, then she goes to cash.

- 30-year Treasury bond: One more week bearish in this setup, then she goes to cash. Hey, is there an echo?

Everything else stays the same as last week. What was it saying last week? Check the latest signals table to find out. Have a good holiday weekend, and good luck next week. Also be sure to check my portfolio page for an update early next week.


In Debt We Trust said...

Question. Do you or anybody you know of any site or software or whatever else that offers the futures curves (contango & backwardation) properly charted, plotted as a graph or chart?

I am looking to chart futures backwardation/contango over a period of time. The only other way I can think of doing this is the hard way - crunching through Excel.
I've found a lot of tables on CME's web site but no charts. This is important b/c I want to start incorporating more backwardation/contango across the various months to anticipate long-term market direction or perhaps to determine short-term trading bias.

I find the COT method very helpful but would like to add more tools to narrow down winning %s.

Alex Roslin said...

Hi In Debt...,

Sounds interesting, but I'm afraid I don't recall seeing anything like that. If you find something, let me know.

Take care,