Monday, June 6, 2011
Bullish on Banks, but Still Bearish S&P 500
Is it all over for the bull market rally since... how long has it been now?... since 2009! And what a rally it was. Trader positioning in the futures and options markets gives me a bullish signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, taking effect on today's open of trading. On the other hand, my bearish signal for the S&P 500 is still in effect, too. In fact, the latest COT data from the CFTC shows trader positioning in that market getting even worse.
The explanation could be simple: My BKX trading setup uses three component signals and thus tends to go in and out of positions on a shorter time frame than my S&P 500 setup, which is based on just two signals. In other words, both setups could be right. If that's the case, we could see a little rally within a larger decline.
See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on these and my other signals. Good luck this week!