Sunday, 31 July 2011

S&P Commercial Traders Get Negative, But not Worryingly So

Not one new signal in my trading setups based on the Commitments of Traders reports issued weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. My S&P 500 setup remains notably bullish for a fourth consecutive week, perhaps signalling that all will work out in the U.S. debt standoff craziness.

Mind you, the "smart money" commercial hedgers have gotten considerably more bearish in their derivatives positioning in Friday's data. See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on this and the other COT markets I'm following. Nonetheless, the commercials are far from being at any kind of historic extreme in their holdings, which means my setup remains in bullish mode for the time being. Good luck next week.


I_Got_Prechterized said...

nothing personal, but your positions couldn't be more off lately. Perhaps this market moves too fast to use that 3 week lag?

Reza said...

Please post update early for Friday.


Alex Roslin said...

Hi I Got Prechterized,

It happens. But I've only got two signals on right now - the SPX signal being wrong, but the other one for the 30-year bond being right.

I don't think the three-week lag for the SPX setup is the problem. See more on how I view losing signals on my FAQs page.