Friday, 5 August 2011

Trader Data Bullish for Bank Index, Copper Starting Monday

Woah - that was just plain nutso. I was expecting a big bounce off the debt deal, but this week we got something like Godzilla meets 2008 meets 1929. I got stopped out of my bullish S&P 500 signal, as reported in my post earlier today. When that happens, my rule is to look for possible discretionary trades in the other direction. But I'm not anxious to get short either. We're close to a completed 9 count of a DeMark Sequential Setup in most equity indexes (see more on analyst Tom DeMark's system here), so there could be a vicious snap-back rally early next week that will screw up a lot of bears.

That's also the take I get from today's Commitments of Traders data. As you can see on my newly updated latest signals table, my setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has gone from cash to bullish, taking effect on next week's open of trading.

Also turning bullish on Monday's open is my brand new copper trading setup, as noted in previous posts. Sorry I haven't posted the full testing or other info on my signals and testing pages. I'll do so soon. My maximum portfolio allocation for this setup is 6.53 percent, and my stop is 11.49 percent below the entry price.

See my signals table for more details based on the CFTC's latest data. Have a good weekend, and good luck next week.


I_Got_Prechterized said...


Am I reading your signals table correctly? Commercial traders are bullish the S&P500? But your indicator is cash because there's not confirmation from the small traders? Is that right?

Alex Roslin said...

Hi "I Got,"

Thanks for your question. That setup is in cash because it got stopped out of the bullish signal last week. Note that the cell for "Current Signal" has an asterix beside "cash." The note below the table explains when the setup was stopped out.


In Debt We Trust said...

Volatility has a strong - very strong - tendency to revert to the mean. It is likely that the Vix will plunge in the short to medium term and absolutely in the long term.

Perhaps a strategy of buying vix puts may work.