Friday, 24 August 2012
Bearish Downturn in COT Data Accelerates
Now it's the turn of the metals to confirm the broad downturn in trader positioning in the weekly Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC. Friday afternoon's COT report had more bad news for bulls.
It pushed my setup for copper out of cash into the bearish column, as you'll see on my latest signals table. It also ended my silver setup's long-time bullish signal and put it in cash. That setup would have gone short if the commercial hedgers had gotten just a little more bearish in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest.
In gold, the wrong-way small traders got heavily bullish - another bearish development. But their signal has a two-week trade delay, so gold remains bullish for the time being.
And natural gas is also seeing heavily bearish positioning, though it remains in cash next week.
My S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 setups remain bearish as before, while my 30-year Treasury bond signal is bullish again next week (meaning the yield would fall - which is generally bearish for equities). Have a good weekend, and good luck next week.