Sunday, 2 December 2012

Sneaky COT Data Looks Maybe, Possibly Bullish... But Who Knows!

The drumbeat of bullish news continues in the latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday.

My signal for the Nikkei goes to bullish on the coming week's open of trading. Also, my trading setup for the 30-year Treasury bond goes bearish (meaning yields would go up, also typically a bullish sign).

As reported last week, my S&P 500 signal, which has been bearish since August 20, goes bullish on the open of trading in a week's time on Dec. 10. That's due to the more optimistic recent net positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options, as you can see on my latest signals table.

But of course, we never know what will happen! All this trader positioning could be completely wrong for all I know. It's happened in the past often enough. In fact, I think making overly bold forecasts might be a good way to jinx myself and help ensure my positions don't work.

So I'll go ahead right now and say there's an excellent chance the COT data is just tricking me and that a horrible holiday season for the markets could very well await, no doubt due to some new craziness in D.C. or Europe.

Knock on wood.

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