Saturday, 8 February 2014

S&P 500 Smart Money Boosts Bullish Positioning

Bullish positioning has gotten even stronger among "smart money" commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report puts the commercial net position as a portion of total open interest at 2.58 standard deviations above the average of recent data, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes bullish on next week's open of trading based on the recent data. The signals aren't always right, but the recent move could mean the correction in equities has a good chance of being over.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest positioning in the 10 markets I trade based on the free weekly COT reports.

Note that I've never found a significant correlation between week-to-week changes in COT positioning and S&P 500 prices. But the extent of the bullish net positioning could mean a longer-lasting up-move is coming, rather than a shorter-term rebound in a bearish downturn.

Other signals taking effect on next week's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and bullish for silver. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond turns bullish in a week's time on the open the week of Feb. 17.

Good luck this week, and Happy Valentine's Day


John Short said...

Open is 9:30 monday or 18:00 sunday?

Alex Roslin said...

Hi John,

The weekly open of trading I'm talking about is the open in New York - 9:30 am EST.