Saturday, 24 May 2014

S&P 500 Commercials Steadily Less Bearish

No new signals this week. Another quiet week in the land of the Commitments of Traders reports.

See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.

The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.

Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.

Good luck this week.


Kevin said...

Glad I found your site. The download links for your spreadsheet are disabled.
I have an idea about running the COT through a gP or symbolic regression to see what happens.
Could I get a copy of your spreadsheet?

Alex Roslin said...

Hi Kevin,

Thanks for your interest. I haven't had a chance to update that page with a sample spreadsheet. Apologies. I'll try to get to it.

The parameter values for that setup are given on my backtesting results page, so you can recreate it in Excel with the historic COT data and historic SPX data from a site like Yahoo Finance.