COTs Timer

Ever wonder what the smart money is doing in the markets? You don’t need to pay big bucks to find out. Just read the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s free weekly Commitments of Traders report. The CFTC’s COT data is a Holy Grail of market info, listing trillions of dollars in positions in 200+ markets – gold, crude oil, natural gas, silver, forex, equity indexes and lots more. My trading system, which I posted about here for seven years, gave weekly trading signals based on the COT data.

Friday, 31 December 2010

Holiday Delay

Holiday delay today means this week's Commitments of Traders report will be issued Monday afternoon instead of today. Happy New Year!

Monday, 27 December 2010

Bullish Natural Gas

Happy holidays! Welcome to an abbreviated Xmas version of COTs Timer. I've just updated my latest signals table based on today's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders release from the CFTC. No new signals again this week. Taking effect on this week's open of trading were two previously announced signals: bullish for natural gas and cash for the Nikkei Stock Average. Tune back in tomorrow or the day after for a portfolio update, and best wishes in 2011! Now back to my eggnog.

TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil,Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans,market timing,trading system development, CFTC,Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Friday, 17 December 2010

Treasury Bond Signal From Bearish to Bullish

Not much to report this week from the Commitments of Traders data. See my latest signals table for the details. The only new trade to take effect on Monday's open of trading is to sell my bearish position in the 30-year Treasury bond and go long. That one's worked out pretty nicely. So has my bearish position in natural gas, which has one more week to run; that setup then goes bullish on the open of the week of Dec. 27.

Hope you have a great weekend and good luck next week. Tune back in early next week for a portfolio update. Happy Holidays!

Friday, 10 December 2010

Bullish: Gold; Cash: Financials; Bearish: Gas

I've just updated my latest signals table based on this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. U.S. financials go from bearish to cash. Gold goes from cash to bullish. Natural gas goes from cash to bearish. See the table for all the details, and check back in after the weekend for a portfolio update. Have a good weekend!

Stopped Out of S&P 500 Short Trade

I've been stopped out of my S&P 500 short position. As usual when something like this happens, I'll be looking at the charts to go in the opposite direction because it means an unusually strong trend.

Friday, 3 December 2010

Slew of Red

Woah. What a mess of red showing up this week on my latest signals table! Although I'm quite long in my discretionary trades based on the sweet price action lately, the Commitments of Traders data just hates this market. I've just updated my table based on this afternoon's data from the CFTC. Some highlights:

- U.S. financials: My trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has gone bearish after 11 weeks in cash. This is due to huge declines in the total open interest of the large speculators and small traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract, plus declining net positioning of the large specs. The bearish signal takes effect on Monday's open of trading.

- Nikkei: My Nikkei setup also goes bearish on Monday's open.

- S&P 500: My S&P 500 setup has been bearish since Oct. 4, and the data remains steadfastly negatory despite the recent market action.

- Natural gas: Even natural gas is jumping into the bearish camp. This, even after its collapse over the last few eons. The signal takes effect with a week's trade delay - i.e. on Monday, Dec. 13.

Hope you had a good week and that you have an even better weekend. Tune back in early next week for a portfolio update.

About This Site

I am an active trader and award-winning investigative journalist based in Lac Brome in Quebec's Eastern Townships, just outside Montreal. I have written about investing and business for The Montreal Gazette, Investor's Digest of Canada, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Futures & Options Trader, The Financial Post and others. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my COTs Timer system. Please see more disclaimer information below. See my complete profile at the "Intro to COT" link above.

DISCLAIMER

I created this blog to record my personal, subjective observations about the markets, solely for my entertainment and that of interested readers and to foster research. Nothing on this blog should be construed as financial advice or an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I encourage anyone interested in the markets to do your own homework and/or consult a professional advisor. I am not a certified financial advisor and am still refining my trading system. I reserve the right to modify or stop publishing aspects of my system at any time or to delay updating my tables for whatever reason, or I may not do so in a timely manner. My system has resulted in very large drawdowns in some trades. Past backtested and real-time results are no guarantee of future performance. I will not be liable for any losses or damages of any kind that result from the content of this site. Although I consider the data, calculations and information on this blog to be reliable, I can't make any guarantees and won't be held liable or responsible for anything erroneous on this website. You are solely responsible for implementing safeguards of your data and system when you use this site and its content and links. It is up to the user of this site and content to protect yourself from worms, trojan horses, viruses and the like. I may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned in this blog.