Bearish Turn for Nasdaq-100

As equity markets enjoy a powerful rally, trader positioning is looking more bearish, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report, which shows how large trading institutions are positioned in 200-plus markets, put my signal for the Nasdaq-100 index into the bearish column.

The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.

It's based on the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more bearish, while the wrong-way large speculators, whom I fade, got more bullish.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in this and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options have also gotten strongly more bearish in the latest data, but not quite enough to end my bullish signal, which has been in effect since mid-March.

My Nikkei signal has been bearish since July 8.

My signal for natural gas, which has been short since May 20, remains bearish, and the data shows no signs of reversal (though that can of course change from week to week).

Good luck this week!

Three-Week Bank Bullish Signal Ends

One new signal takes effect on the open of trading next week - and all else remains the same in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The new signal: cash for my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which has been bullish for three weeks.

I've just updated my latest signals table with the latest COT data on trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the CFTC's reports.

Have a good weekend, and good luck this week. See you after next week's COT report.

Bond to Cash

My signal for the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash on this week's open of trading. That's based on the latest trader positioning in bond futures and options as revealed by Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on this free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See more details on positioning in this and the other markets I trade on my latest signals table.

Good luck this week!

Bearish Turn for Nikkei

New signal for this week based on the Commitments of Traders reports: bearish for the Nikkei Stock Average.

That signal would have taken effect on this week's open of trading, but there was a delay in the release of last week's COT report due to the July 4 holiday. And I didn't get around to updating my spreadsheets until this morning. Very sorry for the delay.

Doesn't look like the Nikkei has moved too much since the week's open, so I'm going to probably put on the position right now after I check for an appropriate security to do it with.

Unfortunately, the bearish Nikkei ETFs out there have very low volume, so I sometimes don't do bearish trades for the Nikkei just because I don't like the securities available.

Also for next week's open, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes to cash.

See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the recent COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

I'll be on the road for the next few days so my next update may be slightly delayed again. Apologies in advance -- and good luck this week.

Holiday Delay for COT Report

The past week's normally scheduled Commitments of Traders report is delayed until Monday afternoon because of the July 4 holiday. See you sometime after that release for my usual update.