Smart Money and Dumb Both Fading Rally

What a beautiful little rally we saw this week. Could it be? Could it be - dare I say it - a bottom? The major traders don't seem to know either. At least, not if we're to believe this week's Commitments of Traders data. This, of course, is the government data that reports on trillions of dollars in futures and options positions in major markets. 

This Friday afternoon's data shows the "dumb money" small traders in S&P 500 futures and options continuing their capitulation that started the week of March 17. Why, isn't that around when the broad markets really broke out and got this rally on solid ground? Oops! That, my friends, is why we call them the "dumb money." I don't mean to make light of the ill-fortune of the retail crowd, much less to denigrate these people. I am them! Most of us are. In most cases, they're really the victims of unscrupulous, poorly informed and downright criminal advisors, brokers, newsletter writers and a corrupt financial press.

These are the same folks who got highly bullish in November, just as the market cracked apart, and remained so until mid-March. Now, they're fading this rally. 

That has turned my signal based on fading these poor people bullish for the past two weeks. But that's n0t an all-clear by any means. I've found that trading on the basis of only one group of traders in the COT reports can often catch me in a bad trade. This is why I rely on two groups of traders giving an agreeing signal before I put on a position. Until then, I stay in cash.

And in fact, that's what my SPX setup says to do starting on next week's open. As you'll recall from my posts of the last two weeks, the "smart money" commercial traders are heavily shorting this rally, and it doesn't pay to bet against these guys. Today, they've reduced their bearish positioning from the previous week, but they remain super dubious. They're up to 1.56 standard deviations below the moving average I use for their signal, an improvement from 2.28 standard deviations below last week. So my SPX setup will stay in cash until these two groups of traders make up their minds. Stay tuned.

In gold, the large speculators, whom I fade in that market, have reduced their net long positioning as a percentage of the total open interest - down to 0.52 standard deviations above the average, from 1.12 standard deviations above last week. That signal remains bullish - same as it's been since last August. The reduction in their net long positioning is a good sign for gold bulls, as it means the froth is coming off this market.

Perhaps things will align right for a bullish bullion position two weeks out. My other signal in this market - based on fading the large spec total open interest - has flipped to bullish after one week being bearish. That's based on the "dumb money" large specs pulling out of the market and their total open interest (long plus short positions) flipping to 0.76 standard deviations below the moving average, down from 0.69 standard deviations above the average the previous week.

Have a happy Easter and see you here early next week with some news about a new trading setup for crude oil, which I've almost finished testing.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, crude oil, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing,walk-around testing 

"Smart Money" Traders Betting Against Sucker Rally

An awful lot of people seem to think the worst is over for stocks. But a big time bomb may be close to detonating in the derivatives market. The "smart money" commercial traders - who are usually correctly positioned at key market junctures - have been massively fading the current stock rally.

Their net position last week in S&P 500 futures and options was 1.92 standard deviations below the moving average I use for my trading setup based on the Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's data saw them get even more net short. Their net position as a percentage of the total open interest fell to 2.28 standard deviations below the average. That's the most bearish they've been since early December - right before the market collapsed and took out its 2002 lows.

But the data isn't entirely bearish and is giving some mixed signals. While the commercials have been running for the exits, the "dumb money" small traders have also gotten bearish. My trading setup needs to see both groups of traders give the same signal before I'll actually bet money on a trade. And the little guy got super-bearish last week, which actually resulted in a bullish signal for the S&P 500.

Then, on Friday, the small traders significantly increased their net long position. They went from 0.53 standard deviations below the average to even with the average on Friday. For my signal to flip to bearish, they need to hit 0.2 standard deviations above the average.

What does all this mean? Until the two signals agree, my setup for the S&P 500 will remain in cash.

This setup also has a three-week trade delay, and the two signals stopped agreeing with each other as of the March 17 COT report. So my setup goes from bearish to cash on the open Monday, April 13, and will remain so for the next three weeks, at least.

As for gold, the other market for which I've developed a COT trading setup, the signal remains in cash next week - its ninth in a row. But there's suddenly some bearish news looming over the horizon, after four weeks of potentially bullish posturing.

On Friday, the "dumb money" large speculators upped their total open interest by a sizable amount, bringing it to 0.69 standard deviations above the average, up from 0.55 standard deviations below the average the previous week. This sudden turn-around has caused my large spec open interest signal to go bearish, after four weeks in the bullish column. This signal works with a seven-week trade delay, so the flip-flopping signals don't have any bearing until the end of April.

What happens then depends on what the other signal that makes up my gold trading setup does. That other signal is based on fading the large spec net position as a percentage of the total open interest. (There is also no trade delay for this second signal - meaning the trade would be executed on the Monday after the signal.)

The large specs also seem to be on the move in their net positioning. Their position has gone from 0.74 standard deviations above the moving average to 1.12 standard deviations above. They haven't quite hit excessive territory yet, but they're getting closer. I guess the gold bugs are working overtime trying to get everyone piling in. So my signal based on fading the large spec net position remains bullish. But for the entire gold setup to go bullish at the end of April the large speculators have to put on the brakes. Or we could be in for continued volatility in bullion.

Hope you had a great weekend, and good luck this week!

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

S&P 500 Commercials Fading Rally

Not sure what to make of this market. I think the Commitments of Traders data from this afternoon is equally ambivalent. Derivatives traders in S&P 500 futures and options have gone bipolar this week. You'll recall my S&P 500 trading setup has been bearish for a few weeks. 

Last week, the "smart money" commercial traders flipped from bearish to bullish as they dramatically reduced their net short position. The commercial signal works with a three-week trade delay, but things were looking bullish. At the same time, small traders, who've been highly bullish since November in their futures and options positioning, had suddenly reduced their net long positioning last week. 

Well, things have changed. Today's data has caused both of my signals to flip. 

The commercial traders have suddenly ramped up their net short position again as the market rallied this week. They're clearly fading this bounce. Their net position as a percentage of the total interest has gone from 1.48 standard deviations above the moving average I use for the commercials signal to 1.92 standard deviations below the average. Their signal has flipped back to bearish after one week in the bullish column.

Meamwhile, the "dumb money" small traders have gone ahead and continued their capitulation that started last week. They're now 0.53 standard deviations below the moving average I use for their signal - down from 0.63 standard deviations above the average. That's caused my small traders signal to flip to bullish as the wrong-way retail crowd has also decided to fade this rally. Amazing.

Both signals work with a three-week trade delay. So where things stand right now is this: the current bearish signal will continue this coming week and the next and then - because the two signals don't agree - the setup goes to cash on the open of trading Monday, April 13.

As I noted in a comment to my post Wednesday, my current bearish S&P 500 position got stopped out that day after it hit my 8.82-percent stop level. That level comes from taking the average backtested trade gain and subtracting two standard deviations of the trade returns. The idea is to end the trade if markets appear to be acting outside historic norms. The largest past drawdown for this setup is 19.05 percent. So far, the setup loss wouldn't have been anywhere near that. But if the S&P 5oo rises to 903.43 during the life of this bearish signal - equal to a 19.05-percent loss for a bearish position - I'll invoke my Black Swan risk-control rule. That means I'd halt trading this setup for four weeks. The idea is to avoid markets when they are acting completely outside the historic norms seen in the backtesting.

On the other hand, if the S&P 500 falls below my entry price when the signal started (758.84),  I'll enter another short position for the duration of this bearish signal.

The COT data for gold is a little less eventful of late. The setup is in cash, but seems primed to enter a trade on the bullish side at the end of April. My signal based on fading the large spec total open interest remains in its fourth week of being bullish. That signal works with a seven-week trade delay. So if the other signal within this setup remains bullish, I'll go long in a few weeks.

Hope you have a great weekend. I'll update my portfolio page early next week with my recently closed S&P 500 position.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Tests of Short S&P 500 Stop Levels

Interesting couple of days. My two short positions for my bearish S&P 500 signal have come close to be stopped out each of the past three days. My stop levels are $72.73 for the 200-percent leveraged SDS ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETF and $31.17 for the 200-percent leveraged HSD Horizons BetaPro Bear Plus S&P 500 ETF (trading in Toronto). Good luck for the rest of the week - and see you back here Friday.

Signs of Bottom? Wrong-Way Traders May Have Started Capitulation

Another nutty week! Completely fitting for the times. The Commitments of Traders data released this afternoon also has some interesting new things to say. I've now updated my latest signals table based on today's data. Some highlights:

- S&P 500: Some possibly important shifts appear to be taking root in the derivatives data for the SPX. They've caused my trading setup based on the COT reports to give a new signal - cash - to be executed with a three-week trade delay on the open of Monday, April 13. The "smart money" commercial traders have dramatically reduced their net short position as a percentage of the total open interest. Their positioning went from 0.84 standard deviations below the moving average I use for my commercials signal last week to 1.48 standard deviations above the average this week. That's flipped my commercial trader signal from bearish to bullish - with the three-week delay I mentioned earlier. The other signal that makes up this setup is based on fading the wrongway small traders - who tend to be badly positioned at market turns - when their positioning hits certain extremes. Last November, they hit a bullish extreme that put my signal for the small traders in the bearish camp. This week, they've finally broke down and got substantially less exuberant. It seems the market losses have finally sunk in. They've gone from 1.56 standard deviations above the average to 0.63 standard deviations above. Their positioning still has to fall further - down to 0.2 standard deviations above the average - in order for this signal to flip to bullish, but this week may have been an important break. They've haven't been anywhere near to this bearish since November. If we see more signs of capitulation soon, we could be close to a bottom - though whether it's an interim or longer-term bottom, I have no idea.

Gold: No change for my gold setup, which remains in its seventh straight week of being in cash as bullion meanders in what appears to be a long trading range. However, my large spec total interest signal is now in its third week of being bullish - based on fading the large speculator total long and short positioning. I trade their signal with a seven-week trade delay. The other signal within my gold setup - based on fading the large spec net positioning - has been bullish since last August. So if the two signals remain bullish a few more weeks, I expect to go long at the end of April.

Hope you have a rejuvenating weekend. I'll update my portfolio page early next week with my S&P 500 position results.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans,market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

S&P 500 Rally Could be Short-Lived

A nice little rally this week, but was that really the bottom? Reading some of the latest free reports this week and last from Montreal's BCA Research makes me doubt that it is. As well, the indices are still well below their Tom DeMark Setup Trend lines on the daily charts. The monthly charts are even worse, especially for the Nikkei, S&P 500 and Dow. And what about the Commitments of Traders data? Some of the latest data from today's release doesn't give any fresh hope for a real recovery, in my opinion. I've updated my latest signals table with the calls from my trading setups based on this data.

- S&P 500: The small traders are still far too bullish, as they've been since November during the entire decline. This is a bad sign, if historic trends are any indication. Friday's data shows their net position falling ever so slightly from 1.60 to 1.56 standard deviations above the moving average as a percentage of the total open interest. The "smart money" commercial traders are still deeply bearish, though a tad less so than last week, with their net position going from 1.02 to 0.84 standard deviations below the moving average. I had a bearish signal from this trading setup from three weeks ago that takes effect on the open of trading this coming Monday, March 16. The latest bearish reading of the data means the setup will remain in bearish mode for at least the next three weeks.

- Gold: This setup remains in cash another week - the sixth straight week. But a bullish sign is that the large speculator total open interest has fallen again. It's now 1.21 standard deviations below the moving average I use for this setup, down from 0.72 standard deviations below. This signal has been bullish for two weeks in a row now, but it works with a seven-week trade delay. The other signal that makes up this combo setup - based on fading the large spec net position - is already bullish. So the setup could go from cash to bullish in six weeks' time if the large spec net position signal is bullish at that time.

Hope you have a relaxing weekend. I'll update my portfolio page early next week with the bearish S&P 500 position.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans,market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

S&P 500 May Pause Before Next Leg Down: Data

Wow. What an absolute disaster of a week. The Dow and S&P 500 are now well below their 2002 lows. The Nikkei has decisively broken below its 2003 low. The FTSE is now testing its lows of the last bear market. But Canada's TSX index is, oddly, well above its 2002 bottom. Does that mean there is still some hope for the market, with Canada's outperformance representing resilient commodity demand? Maybe the commodity bull really isn't over and is just seeing one hell of a huge correction? I don't know. What I can say is Friday's Commitments of Traders report doesn't give much hope for equity bulls. I've now updated my latest signals table. Some highlights from the latest weekly data:

- S&P 500: My trading setup for the S&P 500 has been bearish since November, but this coming week it goes briefly to cash. That's based on the commercial trader net futures and options positioning during the week of Feb. 10, when it abruptly rose to a bullish extreme. It quickly fell back into bearish territory the following week, so my setup goes back to bearish on the open of Monday, March 16, and will remain so for at least the ensuing three weeks. In the latest COT report, the commercial net position as a percentage of the total open interest dropped from 0.47 to 1.02 standard deviations below the moving average I use to evaluate their positioning. Meanwhile, the "dumb money" small traders - far from turning more bearish during the latest market cataclysms - have actually become even more bullish. Amazing! In Friday's data, their net percentage-of-open-interest position went from 1.48 to 1.60 standard deviations above the average. Not good at all if you happen to be a bull. They obviously are convinced the bottom is in. But their poor past record raises questions about whether that's the case.

- Gold: My trading setup for gold based on the COT data remains in cash again this week - the fifth in a row. The two signals that make up this setup don't agree with each other again. However, some possible light at the end of the tunnel: my signal based on the large speculator total open interest (long plus short positions) has flipped to bullish. That signal has a seven-week trade delay - which means the overall setup can't go to bullish for seven more weeks. Until now, the large spec total open interest has been persistently excessively bullish during the recent gold rally. That turned the setup to cash after a three-week bullish call. Now, the large specs have suddenly pulled back from being 1.07 standard deviations above the moving average to 0.72 standard deviations below. If my other signal - based on fading the large spec net percentage-of-open-interest position, but with no trade delay - is bullish in seven weeks' time, I'll be shopping for some bullion.

Hope you have a good weekend. And be sure to check out the updated post on my portfolio page early next week.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans,market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

Small Makeover for Gold Setup

My trading setup for gold based on the Commitments of Traders reports has gotten a small makeover. The new specs and results are all posted on my latest signals table. The change is that I've tweaked the parameter values for the large spec total open interest setup. The upper signal line has gone from 0.2 standard deviations above the moving average to 0.25. The lower signal line went from 0.6 standard deviations below the average to 0.65. Not a big different, but those values produced slightly better results in my walk-around testing - i.e., my check on the backtested performance of neighbouring setups that have slightly altered parameter values. A robust setup should have neighbouring setups that also performed well. Taking a look at them is an important way to reduce the risk of curve-fitting and improve the odds of good performance in actual trading. Right now, the new setup is in cash (like the old one). Now that I've finalized my testing on the S&P 500 and gold - at long last! - I'm planning to get to work on new setups for a couple of markets that aren't strongly correlated to the first two: the Nikkei and natural gas.

S&P 500 Looking Gloomy

I've been busy most of the day with some virus problems, so apologies for an abbreviated Commitments of Traders update today. My two trading setups based on this weekly derivatives data are unchanged: bearish for the S&P 500 for next week and cash for gold.

My S&P 500 setup will be going to cash on the open of trading on Monday, March 9. That signal will last all of one week, then revert to bearish for at least two more weeks... and possibly more. Three weeks out is all the signal can see. The data for the S&P 500 is uniformly bearish, except for that brief respite in a week's time. In this afternoon's COT data, the commercial traders are 0.47 standard deviations below the moving average I use for their signal. And the small traders are still far too exuberant - their net percentage-of-open-interest position 1.48 standard deviations above the average. That's down from 1.61 standard deviations the week before - but still far from falling into bearish territory. Unfortunately, the little guy doesn't seem to have lost enough money yet.

In gold, still no resolution in the standoff in my trading setup. The large specs have dropped their net position as a percentage of the total interest two weeks in a row. They now sit 1.02 standard deviations above the average. That is bullish. These guys are usually wrongly positioned at market turns. However, the large spec total open interest is still alarmingly high. It's at 1.07 standard deviations above the average. We need to see that come down dramatically at least to 0.6 standard deviations below the average to flip the entire setup back to bullish. So the overall setup remains in cash for a fourth straight week. It could mean there needs to be a pullback before gold will continue on its march to $3,000 or whatever the gold bugs are predicting these days.

Hope you have a good weekend. And be sure to check out the updated post on my portfolio page.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

S&P 500 Bearish Two More Weeks

Okay, this isn't funny any more. I just checked the BKX Bank Index. It's down 50 percent YTD. How is that even possible? The mind reels. I hope you fared okay this last week. The Commitments of Traders report from this afternoon doesn't give much hope things will get better soon. At least not the way I read it. This weekly government data on futures and options holdings gives me no new signals for next week. So my existing bearish signal for the S&P 500 and cash for gold are still in effect. (See my latest signals table for more details.) Some other highlights:

- Odds are we're not at a bottom yet, according to my read of the latest S&P 500 COT data. The small traders in S&P 500 futures and options are showing, yet again, why everyone calls them the "dumb money." While the S&P 500 fell another 48 points from this week's open to the close, the small traders significantly stepped up their net long position as a percentage of the total open interest. They went from being 1.02 standard deviations above the moving average to 1.61 standard deviations above. I have a feeling we're not going to see a bottom until these unfortunate folks lose a lot more money. The sad reality is they first hit an extreme of bullishness the week of Nov. 4 expecting the usual Christmas rally, coupled with some Obamania. That week opened at 969. This week closed at 770. That's down 20.5 percent. You'd think the bear market would have sunk in by now. Not according to these numbers.

The "smart money" commercial traders got a little bit bullish last week, but reversed course quickly and this week are back to very bearish. Their net percentage-of-open-interest position is 0.49 standard deviations below the average - down from 0.21 standard deviations above the average last Friday. That short-lived blip of optimism gives me a new delayed signal for two weeks out. My setup will go to cash for the week of March 9 - because of the two signals disagreeing with each other temporarily. It will then go back to bearish the following week.

- My gold setup is in cash for a third week in a row. The wrong-way large speculator crowd's net position is not at any extreme of bulllishness yet. In fact, it fell this week to 1.22 standard deviations above the average, from last week's 1.37 standard deviations above. But the large speculator total open interest (long plus short positions) remains highly elevated, which gives me a bearish signal. So the setup as a whole is in cash because the two signals don't agree. Incidentally, I'm re-examining my gold setups a little right now because I've identified a few possible setups that might be slightly more robust. I am quite satisfied with the existing one, but I am going back to study it against some other possible setups to make sure I'm using the very best one possible, based on my latest appreciation for things statistical.

Hope you have a good weekend. See you early next week with an update of my portfolio page and maybe more news on that new gold setup.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

S&P 500 Bearish, Data Mixed for Gold

No new signals this week for my trading setups for the S&P 500 and gold based on the Commitments of Traders reports, but the data is saying some interesting things. This afternoon's new data keeps both setups in their existing signals: bearish for the S&P 500 and cash for gold. (Be sure to read my post from this morning about my new S&P 500 setup.)

- For the S&P 500, the new setup is based on trading alongside the commercial traders when they hit extremes of futures and options positioning - and fading the small traders. The commercial traders have dramatically reduced their net short position as a percentage of the total open interest since its bearish extreme in late November, when it hit 2.8 standard deviations below the moving average I use for that signal. The commercials have jumped from being 0.5 standard deviations below the average last week to 0.2 standard deviations above the average now. That signal has now gone bullish (with a trade delay of three weeks).

But my other signal for this setup - based on trading opposite to the small traders - remains bearish. That's because these guys remain one standard deviation above the moving average for that setup and are still far from working off the bullish excess in their positioning that they've displayed since the week of the U.S. presidential election, when they suddenly shot up to 1.96 standard deviations above the average - a huge jump from 0.2 standard deviations below that average the week previous. Until the small traders get more burned, this signal won't go to bullish. At best, the setup will go to cash in three weeks' time due to the commercial signal not agreeing with the small traders' call.

- For gold, the large speculators, whom this setup fades, have steadily built up a net long positioning that is starting to approach extreme territory, but we're not there yet. That signal is now 1.4 standard deviations above the average, but needs to hit 1.9 standard deviations for it to flip the signal to bearish. However, the other signal for this setup - based on fading the large spec total open interest (long plus short positioning) - reveals that the large spec total positioning has been at a bullish extreme for several weeks - 0.9 standard deviations above the average this week. Thus, this signal is bearish. So the combined setup is in cash for a second week this week. No joy.

Hope you did okay this week and have a good weekend and Happy Valentine's Day. See you next week, and be sure to check my portfolio page with an update.

TAGS: S&P 500, SPX, gold, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, Monte Carlo, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing

New S&P 500 Setup Bearish

Sorry I missed my promised post of earlier this week updating my take on the last Commitments of Traders data. I was busy finalizing another look at my S&P 500 trading setups based on this weekly government data that tells us how big traders are positioned in the futures and options markets. I was reviewing my best setups based on slightly rebalanced weightings for the indicators I'm using to choose the best ones. I've given a little more weight to my "walk-around" test results (i.e., how "neighbouring" setups do, with slightly altered parametre values) and to my Monte Carlo results. Turns out that those measures tend to correlate nicely with how setups did during the market disaster of the last year.

My new S&P 500 setup's specs are all now posted on my latest signals table, and you can see it for yourself on my DIY sample spreadsheet page, including the equity curves for the setup and the S&P 500. Unlike my last S&P 500 setup, which lost about 14 percent in 2008, this one was down 7.6 percent - not great, but not as bad as the market's 40.9 percent. (Those numbers are based on weekly open prices and, for my old setup, don't take into account my stops or Black Swan rule, which would have slightly reduced that loss.) With this kind of system, it's nearly impossible to design it so it will win each and every year. In fact, doing so deliberately would have a good chance of creating a non-robust system with poor future results. So one bad year doesn't worry me, especially if the setup beat the market by a wide margin. You might be wondering why I don't go backwards and look for systems that did well in 2008. Again, that kind of exercize runs the risk of cherry-picking a setup that's useless in real-life trading. In fact, the leading contender setups I looked at that were profitable last year tended to be inferior in various robustness measures.

Meanwhile, this year, my new S&P 500 setup is up 3.5 percent so far (as of Thursday's close). And the setup's compound annual growth of 17.5 percent was 72 percent greater than the market's between 2003 and 2007 (including a 0.2-percent trade friction per trade for commissions and slippage). Far more importantly to my mind, its robustness scores in walk-around, out-of-sample and Monte Carlo testing are all very strong.

What does the setup say now? It has been bearish since Dec. 1 and remains so right now - with little sign of the data being anywhere close to turning bulllish. The latest bearish signal is up 5.4 percent as of yesterday's close. You might recall the setup I was using until now was also bearish until this week, when it went to cash for a single week, and then was going back to bearish. So either way, I'd be bearish going into next week's open. Tune back in here for another update from this afternoon's COT data. Good luck today.

S&P 500, Gold Both to Cash

My latest signals table is now updated based on Friday's Commitments of Traders data. Both of my setups - for the S&P 500 and gold - are in cash as of next Monday. I'll post a more detailed update on the data early next week - along with a portfolio update.