Late December Awash in Bearish Red

I somehow missed doing my promised update after Monday's holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report came out. Very sorry! All the latest data based on today's new COT report has now been crunched by my chastized yet keen team here at COTs Timer central, and my latest signals table has been updated.

As it happens, last Monday's data didn't add any other signals than the ones I mentioned in last Saturday's post. 

The new data from today, however, is a different story, as you'll see on my signals table. No new signals to report for next week's open, but after that, watch out. I think the best way to describe the latest COT data is "Yikes." Or perhaps "bahumbug." Santa will not be pleased. Late December is awash in bearish red. But try not to think about that right now! Tis the season to be jolly. Hope you have a great weekend, and good luck this coming week.

Holiday Delay - A Few New Signals

Hope U.S. readers had a yummy turkey last week. The holiday delay means Friday's Commitments of Traders report will come out Monday, so I'll only update my latest signals table after that. But there are still a few signals taking effect on Monday's open based on data until now. To whit:

- S&P 500: Goes from cash to bearish

- Crude oil: Goes from cash to bearish

- Natural gas: Goes from bearish to bullish

- 30-year Treasury bond: Goes from bullish to cash

These signals are all marked on my signals table. But please note that I haven't updated the rest of that table, including the column for the coming week's "current signal," because of the holiday-delayed data. Thus, the signals in that column are for last week. Have a good weekend, and see you back here after Monday's data release.

Copper to Cash, Bond Bullish

Two signals taking effect this coming week's open of trading: copper goes to cash, while the 30-year Treasury bond goes bullish. See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I follow using the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

Trader Data Good for Nikkei, Bad for Gas, Toss-up for Bond

Some signals taking effect on this week's open: the Nikkei goes to bullish, natural gas goes to bearish and the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash. See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and other markets as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The S&P 500 data is notably striking lately, with the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting highly bearish in their net positioning as a percentage of the total open interest, while the not-so-smart small traders remain super-bullish (whose signal I fade in my setup). My setup goes bearish the week of Nov. 28. What could it mean? These traders seem to be betting the cock-up in Europe gets even worse.

But meanwhile, the data for copper looks interesting too. The setup for the "smartest metal" remains bearish another week, then goes to cash. The data has just now also turned bullish, which historically has tended to mean price rises starting six to eight weeks down the line, depending on the trader group.

Hope you stay out of trouble this week! See you back here Friday.

Holiday Delay

Friday's Commitments of Traders report is delayed until today due to a holiday delay with Remembrance Day. See you back here later today with a post about the latest weekly trader data. Meanwhile, as you'll see on my latest signals table, my natural gas trading setup goes from cash to bearish on this morning's open of trading owing to data from recent weeks.

BKX, Gas to Cash, Bond Bullish, Late Nov. Doldrums in Sight for SPX

Signals taking effect on Monday's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and natural gas, and bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond. To see more details on these markets and for other signals taking effect in coming weeks, check my newly updated latest signals table based on Friday's trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders report. Hint: New signal coming up for SPX, and it doesn't look good for bulls, no sir. Good luck this week!

Nikkei, Crude to Cash

Two signals taking effect on today's open of trading. My trading setups for the Nikkei and crude oil both go to cash. See my latest signals table for the details on these and my other setups based on trader positioning as reported in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In other markets, my natural gas signal goes from bearish to cash on Nov. 7, while my copper setup goes from bearish to cash on Nov. 21. Good luck this week, and Happy Halloween.

Nikkei Bullish, Bond to Cash

A couple of signals taking effect on Monday's open of trading: cash for my 30-year Treasury bond setup and bullish for the Nikkei. See my newly updated latest signals table for more details on trader positioning and signals for these and the other markets I follow using the Commitments of Traders reports issued weekly for free by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Existing signals that continue this coming week: bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, bearish for crude oil (that setup goes to cash on Oct. 31), bullish for gold, bearish for natural gas and bearish for copper (that setup goes to cash on Nov. 21). Hope you had a good weekend, and good luck this week.

Trader Positioning Bearish for Copper and Natural Gas

Two signals for Monday's open of trading: bearish for my natural gas trading setup and bearish for copper. Check my newly updated latest signals table to see details on trader positioning and signals for these and the other markets I follow using the weekly Commitments of Traders reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Good luck next week.

Slew of Sells From Latest Trader Data

Woah - a slew of red bearish signals on my newly updated latest signals table. Looks like the bloodbath that is the markets these days. So you thought the correction was over and we're in the clear with this little bounce? Ha. The Commitments of Traders data does not agree with you.

Of course, the traders whose positioning the COT data reflects aren't always right. Nobody is. Here's a snapshot of some of those signals. You'll have to check the signals table for details on the COT positioning for each market.

- S&P 500: still in cash after being stopped out of a bullish signal in August.

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish on next week's open of trading.

- Crude oil: bearish on next week's open.

- Gold: last week's bullish signal still in effect next week.

- Nikkei: in cash like last week.

- Natural gas: last week's bearish signal ends. This setup goes to cash on next week's open.

- 30-year Treasury bond: bullish last week, still bullish next week.

- Copper: in cash next week, going bearish the week after (on the open the week of Oct. 17).

Hope you have a good weekend, and good luck next week. Should be nutty! Happy Thanksgiving to Canadian readers.

Data Bullish for Bullion and Bond

A slew of new signals to report for tomorrow's open of trading and the coming weeks. See my newly updated latest signals table for all the details based on the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data on how the biggest market players are positioned in the markets. For newbies, my COTs Timer trading strategy gives signals in eight markets based on past patterns of COT trader derivatives positioning that reliably signaled moves in price action. Here are some highlights from the latest COT data:

- Gold: The huge sell-off in bullion has spooked lots of folks. Good time to buy? Or is that just "losers averaging losers," to paraphrase Paul Tudor Jones. (Smart guy!) In this case, the COT data suggests the wrong-way large speculator crowd is at extremes of bearishness in its futures and options positioning. As my table shows, the large spec net position is now down to 2.5 standard deviations below average as a percentage of the total open interest. That's historically tended to lead to upward price moves.

- 30-year Treasury bond: My setup for the bond also goes bullish on Monday's open of trading.

See my signals table for more upcoming signals. Good luck next week.

Banks Go to Cash, Gas Still Bearish

Only one new signal for execution on next week's open. My setup for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index, which was bearish last week, goes to cash on Monday. My other bearish signal - for natural gas - stays bearish this coming week. Everything else is in cash this week.

My newly updated signals table based on the Commitments of Traders data also includes two bearish signals coming down the pipeline for mid-October. My setup for crude oil goes from cash to bearish on the open of Oct. 10 based on bearish positioning by the commercial hedgers and small traders (both of which are the "smart money" in this market). Also, I've finally included more details about my new setup for copper on that table. That setup goes bearish on Oct. 17 because of bearish positioning by the large speculators and small traders.

Reader feedback time: I'm curious how you use the COT data in your trading. Also, what are you doing that's working - and that isn't working - these days?

Good luck this week!

Banks, Gas Positioning Bearish for Next Week

Two signals to report coming out of the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data. Trader positioning has turned super negative in the three-month Eurodollar contract. That's led my trading setup for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index (a basket of the major U.S. financials) to go bearish for Monday's open of trading.

Also, my setup for natural gas goes bearish on Monday's open after the large speculators and small traders both put on highly bearish positioning in recent weeks.

See my newly updated latest signals table for all the details on these and the other setups I'm following. I still haven't added my new copper setup to that list. It's in cash for the next few weeks, but large spec and small trader positioning has turned very bearish here too lately. That's led the setup to give a bearish signal with a four-week delay - meaning for the open the week of Oct. 17. Good luck next week.

BKX, Copper to Cash

A few new signals on my newly updated signals table: cash on next week's open of trading for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and bearish for my natural gas setup with a one week delay (i.e. for execution on the open of trading on Sept. 19). Also, my copper setup goes from bullish to cash on next week's open (on Sept. 12). See my signals table for more details on the Commitments of Traders positioning in these and other markets. Hope you did okay this week, and good luck next week!

Banks Bearish, Gold to Cash, Copper Bullish

My trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes to bearish on next week's open of trading, while my signal for gold goes from bullish to cash. Also, my new setup for copper goes from cash to bullish - but only for a single week; that signal then goes back to cash.

See more details stemming from Friday's Commitments of Traders report on my newly updated latest signals table (not including the data for copper, which I haven't put in that table yet). Hope you have a good weekend, and good luck next week!