Sneaky COT Data Looks Maybe, Possibly Bullish... But Who Knows!

The drumbeat of bullish news continues in the latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday.

My signal for the Nikkei goes to bullish on the coming week's open of trading. Also, my trading setup for the 30-year Treasury bond goes bearish (meaning yields would go up, also typically a bullish sign).

As reported last week, my S&P 500 signal, which has been bearish since August 20, goes bullish on the open of trading in a week's time on Dec. 10. That's due to the more optimistic recent net positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options, as you can see on my latest signals table.

But of course, we never know what will happen! All this trader positioning could be completely wrong for all I know. It's happened in the past often enough. In fact, I think making overly bold forecasts might be a good way to jinx myself and help ensure my positions don't work.

So I'll go ahead right now and say there's an excellent chance the COT data is just tricking me and that a horrible holiday season for the markets could very well await, no doubt due to some new craziness in D.C. or Europe.

Knock on wood.

More Bullish News in Latest COT Data

More bullish news in the latest holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report.

A new signal takes effect this week: Nikkei to cash after seven weeks being bearish.

Also, my S&P 500 signal, which has been bearish since Aug. 20, will go bullish on the open of trading the week of Dec. 10.

That's based on the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting significantly more bullish in their net futures and options positioning in the latest weekly COT report, as you can see on my latest signals table.

Good luck this week.

Holiday Delay

This afternoon's normally scheduled Commitments of Traders report is delayed until Monday afternoon because of the Thanksgiving holiday.

See you back here after that report is issued.

Happy Turkey Day to U.S. readers!

COT Data Looking Up for Banks, Crude

After several months of generally bearish posturing, large traders seem to be swinging into somewhat more optimistic territory, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday.

While my S&P 500 setup remains short for now, other markets are looking a little more bullish in time for the seasonally favourable pre-Christmas period, which is typically a positive time for equities.

My signal for the benchmark BKX U.S. Bank Index, based on trader positioning in the 3-month Eurodollar contract, goes bullish as of next week's open of trading, as you can see on my latest signals table.

And crude oil will be bullish as well.

Also, my currently bearish Nikkei signal will go to cash or possibly bullish in one week's time. (It remains bearish this coming week.)

Positioning in gold and silver in the past two weeks is also looking a little more bullish - or at least less bearish - possibly a sign of post-election U.S. dollar weakness. That, too, is typically positive for U.S. equities.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck next week.

COT Data Puts Natural Gas, Silver Into Cash

Two signals taking effect on this week's open: cash for natural gas and silver. That's based on my trading strategy based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports from th CFTC.

See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I follow. Sorry for the late post. I updated that table Friday but didn't have a chance to write a post about it until now. Good luck this week!

Banks Back to Cash After a Week Bearish

One signal takes effect on next week's open of trading based on the latest data on trader positioning in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

My trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark for U.S. financials, goes to cash after a week being bearish.

All other signals remain the same. What are they? Why, see my newly updated latest signals table for all the details.

Hope readers in the areas affected by Sandy are okay, and good luck next week. Should be loads of fun with the U.S. election Wednesday!

Bullish for Natural Gas, Bearish for Banks and Gold, Cash for Crude and Bond

A bunch of signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for natural gas
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold
- cash for crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond

Other signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in all the markets I'm covering using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Hope you had a good weekend, and good luck this week.

Banks, Copper to Cash This Week; Natural Gas Flips to Bullish Oct. 29

Two signals take effect on next week's open of trading based on the latest trader positioning as revealed in Friday's weekly Commitments of Traders report:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: Goes from bullish to cash.
- Copper: Goes from bearish to cash.

Also, natural gas, now bearish, goes bullish on the open of trading the week of Oct. 29.

Check my latest signals table for more details on positioning in these and the other markets I follow using the Commodity Future Trading Commission's free weekly COT data. Good luck this week.

Natural Gas, Crude to Bearish Next Week, NDX Bullish

More fun confusing signals from the latest Commitments of Traders report from the good ol' CFTC. My trading setups based on this nifty free weekly data on trader positioning are as follows, starting with signals taking effect this coming week:

- Nasdaq-100: Goes bullish on Monday's open of trading.
- Natural gas: Goes bearish on Monday's open.
- Crude oil: Bearish on Monday's open.

See more data on trader positioning in these and my other markets on my latest signals table. And now for my existing signals:

- S&P 500: bearish
- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bullish
- Nikkei: bearish
- Gold: cash
- Silver: bearish
- Copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: bullish

Have a great weekend, and good luck next week.

Commitments Data This Week: Bullish for Banks, Bearish for Japan... And for Oct. 15: Bearish for Natural Gas

A sudden break appeared Friday in the otherwise generally bearish tone of the recent trader positioning as shown in the weekly Commitments of Traders data.

My trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index has gone to bullish for the coming week's open of trading. See my latest signals table for more details on the trader positioning in this and my other setups.

At the same time, my setup for the Nikkei Stock Average goes to bearish this week. And my other existing signals remain the same, including bearish for the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, silver and copper.

Natural gas, meanwhile, remains in cash this week but then goes bearish in a week, on Oct. 15.

Happy Thanksgiving to Canadian readers, and good luck this coming week.

Bearish Nasdaq-100 Signal One of Four New Signals From COT Report

Quite a few new signals taking effect on next week's open of trading based on my trading signals built around the free weekly Commitments of Traders data:

- Nasdaq-100: After a week of cash, NDX goes back to bearish. It was bearish nine weeks previously, losing 9.7%. Hopefully, this time around will be better! Large speculator positioning, which my setup fades, remains highly bullish this past week.

And commercial trader positioning, which my setup trades alongside of, has reversed from last Friday's bullishness back to doom and gloom.

- Nikkei: Fifteen weeks in the bearish column are over for this setup for at least a week and possibly more. That depends in part on the commercial total open interest, which got suddenly quite bullish two weeks ago, then reversed a got a heck of a lot more bearish again.

The small trader open interest remains steadfastly bearish, but who knows what next week will bring!

- Natural gas: Another winning signal (knock on wood! - a lot can happen before the open of trading) from my favourite trading setup. This one was bullish for just a week and goes to cash on Monday's open. Trader positioning already looks set in a bearish direction, and we could see this setup go short in two weeks' time if traders keep doing what they're doing right now.

- Copper: This setup is back to bearish after three weeks in cash.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I follow using the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's COT data. Good luck next week.

Natural Gas Bullish Next Week, Nasdaq-100 to Cash

Natural gas goes bullish on next week's open of trading, according to my trading signal based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data.

It'll be a short-lived signal, lasting just a single week. But gas moves fast, so it could still move far even in one week.

And my Nasdaq-100 signal goes from bearish to cash on next week's open.

These and my other setups are now updated on my latest signals table, showing trader positioning in a bunch of markets based on the COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commish.

Good luck next week! And be sure to share this post with others and to click the social sharing buttons below.

Quiet Week in COT Data

No signals take effect on this week's open of trading in my trading system based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports. (Note, however, my addendum to my post last week about my copper signal: I only realized while doing this week's data update that copper went to cash on last week's open.)

My existing signals remain the same: bearish for the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Nikkei and silver; bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond and cash for everything else (BKX U.S. Bank Index, natural gas, gold, copper and crude oil).

Commitments Data Puts Gold, BKX in Cash

Two signals take effect on Monday's open of trading in my trading strategy based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports:

- My bullish gold signal goes to cash.

- My bearish signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index goes to cash too.

The gold signal did pretty well - up 25.2% in five weeks using a 300% leveraged ETF as of Friday's close. But I gave some of that back with that wrong-way BKX trade, which lost 9.8% in a holiday-shortened week of trading, also using a 300% leveraged fund.

(I'm using the leveraged funds not because I'm especially risk-loving, but just because I had funds tied up in other trades and wanted to get as close as I could to my maximum portfolio allocation for those two setups.)

Other signals remain the same this coming week. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in all the markets I'm trading using the nifty free COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which details trillions of dollars in futures and options bets in 150-plus markets.

Have a good weekend, and good luck next week.

CORRECTION (Sept. 15, 2012): I just noticed that my copper signal also went to cash on last week's open. I hadn't noticed and kept my position a week longer than I should have. Apologies for neglecting to note this in my post last week.

Silver, Banks Bearish Based on CFTC Data

Add silver and the BKX U.S. Bank Index go my growing list of setups in the bearish column based on the weekly Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC. The latest COT data gave those two setups a bearish signal for this week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I follow.

Now I'm heading back to the Brome County Fair and more fun (including blooming onions - yum!) Hope you have a good long weekend too, and good luck this coming week.