Shutdown's Latest Victim: Commitments Data

Another victim of the U.S. government shutdown: your beloved COTs Timer trading system.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday failed to publish its weekly Commitments of Traders data on trader positioning. That means I don't have the data I need to update my signals for trading.

It means a few changes on my latest signals table. My signal for the Nasdaq-100 was bearish, but I will put it in cash due to the lack of data.

My signal for the S&P 500 is currently bullish, but the trade delay for that one is two weeks. So I will keep that one bullish for another two weeks because any new signal from data on Friday would have taken effect only in two weeks.

Meanwhile, my natural gas signal was going to cash next week anyway due to prior changes in trader positioning.

Please tune back in here for updates on the shutdown as it may affect the Commitments of Traders data.

Good luck next week and in the coming weeks to all.

Banks, Nikkei to Cash; Bearish for NDX

Three new signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading in my COTs Timer system:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100

- cash for the Nikkei

Also, my presently bearish signal for natural gas goes to cash in a week's time.

All this is thanks to the latest trader positioning as reported by the free weekly Commitments of Traders reports. See my latest signals table for more details.

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas Bearish, Bond to Cash

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on my trading system using the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for my natural gas signal
- cash for my 30-year Treasury bond signal

All other signals remain the same as last week.

See my latest signals table for the details and to see how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I'm trading using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Banks Brave and Bullish

Just one signal takes effect on the coming week's open of trading, based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Back to bullish for my BKX U.S. Bank Index.

See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out. Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Moves to Bullish, But Uncertainty Dominates

Uncertainty prevails for a second week among traders, according to the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and copper go to cash for the coming week's open of trading.

That means seven signals will be in cash, one will be bullish (S&P 500, which goes bullish this coming week, as announced in my last post), and two will be bearish.

But there might be good news in Friday's S&P 500 data.

The "smart money" commercial hedgers haven't been this relatively bullish as a percentage of total open interest since June 2012.

That was around when the huge push started that ultimately sent the index finally above its 2000-2007 double-top.

See more details on my latest signals table. Good luck this week.

Bullish Sprouts Peep Out

Traders appear to be poking their heads out from shelter and testing the waters with more bullish positioning.

So seems to say the latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday. See my latest signals table for details.

The latest data pushed my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index to bullish for this week's open of trading. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes bearish. (Rising yields tend to be bullish for equities.)

In addition, my S&P 500 signal goes from bearish to bullish in a week's time - i.e. on the open of trading the week of Sept. 9.

In commodities, my natural gas signal goes to cash after a week bullish.

Hope Canadian and U.S. readers had a good long weekend! Good luck this week.

Uncertainty Prevails in Trader Positioning: COT Data

And I thought last week's slew of bearish signals was a lot to chew on. The latest Commitments of Traders data makes last week look like small potatoes.

Traders are flying all over the place with contradictory positioning in various markets, seemingly unsure what to do. There's just a lot of uncertainty out there.

Last week's overwhelmingly bearish posturing has evolved into something more like just-get-me-off-the-bus.

It adds up to a bunch of cash signals (my latest signals table has all the details) for the markets I'm trading using the free weekly Commitments of Traders data.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes from bullish to bearish this coming week. And my Nikkei signal remains bearish.

But these markets move to cash: Nasdaq-100, BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and the 30-year Treasury bond.

Even my bullish natural gas signal will go to cash in a week's time - i.e. on the open the week of Sept. 2.

Good luck in these trying times!

Bearish Move Accelerates in COT Data

Woah - the bearish move is accelerating in trader positioning, according to the latest weekly Commitments of Traders data.

A wash of red ink covers my latest signals table.

Four signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading:

- cash for natural gas (which then goes bullish the following week)

- bearish for the Nikkei, copper and crude oil

Also, my S&P 500 signal goes bearish in a week's time (on the open the week of August 26).

Keep your head down!

S&P 500 To Go Bearish Aug. 26; Natural Gas To Go To Cash Aug. 19

Looks like the silly season is upon us a little early this year. I'm talking about the often-wacky September-October stretch, which sometimes sees hiccups, crashes and other assorted market mayhem.

To wit, the latest Commitments of Traders report has turned my latest signals table somewhat upside down, with a mess of new signals:

- S&P 500: Happily bullish since March 18, the "smart money" commercial hedgers have finally given up the ghost. Their heavily bearish net futures and options position as a portion of the total open interest puts my signal into the bearish column with a two-week delay (i.e. on the open the week of Aug. 26).

- Natural gas: My su-weet signal for natural gas stays bearish one more week - now that one's been a cu-raaaazy ride - then I'm back in cash.

- Gold and silver: These two dogs are finally going from bullish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

Good luck this week.

Confusing Data For Equities in Latest COT Data

Odd mixed signals in the latest weekly Commitments of Traders report.

The S&P 500 commercial hedgers keep getting more heavily bearish in their futures and options positioning, moving to just a hair away from reversing my bullish signal.

Meanwhile, traders in the three-month Eurodollar contract got more bullish and sent my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index from cash to bullish on the coming week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for all the gory details of the latest COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My bearish signal for the Nikkei goes to cash on this week's open.

And yet, my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes bullish on the weekly open - which should be a bearish portent for equities.

Amid all this, my natural gas signal remains faithfully bearish one more week.

It's fascinating data - but trying to make sense of the COT reports can sometimes make your head hurt. Good luck this week!

Bearish Turn for Nasdaq-100

As equity markets enjoy a powerful rally, trader positioning is looking more bearish, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report, which shows how large trading institutions are positioned in 200-plus markets, put my signal for the Nasdaq-100 index into the bearish column.

The signal takes effect on next week's open of trading.

It's based on the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more bearish, while the wrong-way large speculators, whom I fade, got more bullish.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in this and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options have also gotten strongly more bearish in the latest data, but not quite enough to end my bullish signal, which has been in effect since mid-March.

My Nikkei signal has been bearish since July 8.

My signal for natural gas, which has been short since May 20, remains bearish, and the data shows no signs of reversal (though that can of course change from week to week).

Good luck this week!

Three-Week Bank Bullish Signal Ends

One new signal takes effect on the open of trading next week - and all else remains the same in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The new signal: cash for my signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, which has been bullish for three weeks.

I've just updated my latest signals table with the latest COT data on trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the CFTC's reports.

Have a good weekend, and good luck this week. See you after next week's COT report.

Bond to Cash

My signal for the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash on this week's open of trading. That's based on the latest trader positioning in bond futures and options as revealed by Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on this free weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See more details on positioning in this and the other markets I trade on my latest signals table.

Good luck this week!

Bearish Turn for Nikkei

New signal for this week based on the Commitments of Traders reports: bearish for the Nikkei Stock Average.

That signal would have taken effect on this week's open of trading, but there was a delay in the release of last week's COT report due to the July 4 holiday. And I didn't get around to updating my spreadsheets until this morning. Very sorry for the delay.

Doesn't look like the Nikkei has moved too much since the week's open, so I'm going to probably put on the position right now after I check for an appropriate security to do it with.

Unfortunately, the bearish Nikkei ETFs out there have very low volume, so I sometimes don't do bearish trades for the Nikkei just because I don't like the securities available.

Also for next week's open, my signal for the 30-year Treasury goes to cash.

See my latest signals table for more details on how trader positioning is shaking out in the recent COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

I'll be on the road for the next few days so my next update may be slightly delayed again. Apologies in advance -- and good luck this week.

Holiday Delay for COT Report

The past week's normally scheduled Commitments of Traders report is delayed until Monday afternoon because of the July 4 holiday. See you sometime after that release for my usual update.